Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR = 93%

Runs: 1-5 = 98%  

Days: 21+ = 98%

LTO: 1-6 = 88%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 94%

Festival Experience: = 80%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 168+

Best RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 173+

RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs)

EW Analysis:

The Gold Cup has always been a strong stats race and long may that continue. Fastorslow (5/1), Shiskin (7/1), Hewick (16/1), L’Homme Presse (16/1) and Bravemansgame (18/1) have excellent EW profiles. If the ground remains soft throughout the week L’Homme Presse could run a big race, whilst it would hinder Hewicks chances.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-9 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR = 85%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-2 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1 = 90%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 92%

Festival Experience: = 90%

Distance: 24f+ = 75%

OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 171+

Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+

RPR Race: S.D = 173+ Mean = 178+

Significant Stats:

Grade 1

RPR 167+

Days 20+ (a decent break of at least 40+ is often a positive)

Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (174)

Winner analysis:

Galopin Des Champs (11/8) won this well last year and has been a fine form this season racking up some impressive RPRs. Indeed, he has the best profile and should take some beating. Fastorslow meets the three sig stats and the correlation and should give GDC a race. Shiskin is another who meets the three sig stats and correlation, but I’d have preferred a longer lay off and he’s not getting any younger. Finally, L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame also meet the sig stats and correlation. This looks a strong renewal.

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