Arkle Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 98%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 100%

Distance: = 97%

Runs: 2-5 = 80%

LTO: 1-3 = 93%

Days: 21+ = 95%

OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 152+

RPR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 158+

Hurdles OR: S.D. 133+ Mean 145+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB/GER

EW Analysis:

Allmankind (15/2) and Fusil Raffles (40/1) have the best trends profiles away from the front two. Allmankinds jumping will need to hold up if he is to trouble the two market leaders but he certainly has an engine in there. Fusil Raffles could run in this or the Marsh Novices and may be worth chancing as the race could cut up. I’d advise NRNB if doing so as I suspect he will end up in the other race.

 

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Distance: = 95%

Runs: 1-5 = 100% 2-4 = 90%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1st = 80%

OR: S.D = 146+ Mean = 156+

RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 163+

Hurdles OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

RPR 153+ high 162+

HOR 143+ high 153+

OR 146+ high 154+

Course winner

Positive correlation between position, OR (154+), RPR (153+), HOR (143+) & course winner

Winner analysis:

Starting with the four sig stats and correlation points you in the direction of Shishkin (1/1), Allmankind and Fusil Raffles and they are the only horses to meet all four and the correlation. Shishkin looks a classy animal and will take all the beating, he meets all of the general stats as well. I expect him to just sit off the lead and accelerate past on the run in. As discussed, Allmankind needs to improve his jumping, however if he does have a clear round I expect him to pick up some prize money. Those interested in Energumene (9/4) shouldn’t worry too much. The stats he comes short on are the HOR, however he didn’t really have an opportunity to show how good he was over the smaller obstacles after the season was ended prematurely. He does meet the high sig stats of OR and RPR and he has never ran at Chelt either in an attempt to meet the other stat. Seriously looking forward to this race as it should be a cracker.

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