Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-8 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 88%

Runs: 2-5 = 93%

LTO: 1-3 = 90%

Days: 20+ = 98%

OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 148+

HOR: S.D. = 132+ Mean = 143+

RPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 156+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

This has been a solid race for the stats over the years and fingers crossed that continues. Latest Exhibition (14/1) has the perfect EW profile and having backed ante post I’m hoping connections change their mind and send him over as I’m confident with a clear round he would be at least placed. Sporting John (16/1) also has a perfect EW profile and stayed on strongly over 20f last time and the step up in trip looks sure to suit. Next best and those that meet most of the stats are Eklat De Rire (8/1), The Big Breakaway (12/1) and Pencilfulloflead (25/1).

 

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 – 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 80%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Distance: = 75%

Grade (10 years of data only): 1-listed = 90%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 149+

HOR: S.D. = 129+ Mean = 141+

RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 158+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

No significant stats

Winner analysis:

Monkfish (8/11) has looked an even better horse over the larger obstacles and could end up being a bit of a monster and for many will be banker material. He does meet all of the general stats and barring a mishap will obviously take all of the beating. Latest Exhibition also meets all of the general stats and I’m praying that he does turn up and take his chance. Next best is Pencilfulloflead however he isn’t sure to run as he is also engaged in the NH Chase. If he does turn up he needs to taken seriously based on his earlier grade 2 win at Punchestown beating Latest Exhibition.  

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Ultima Handicap Chase

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 94% 7-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 87% Distance: 24f+ = 78% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 129-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-6 Best RPR Race 142+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : There will be plenty of bookies going extra places so shop around. Sequestered (20/1), Famous Bridge (18/1), Malina Girl(12/1) and The Changing Man (6/1) have lovely EW profiles.  Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 94% 7-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 89% Runs: 2-5 = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 89% Distance: 24f+ = 89% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+  Significant Stats: LTO 1-5 Days 0-59 Winner analysis: The four horses above also meet the two sig stats and the win stats. Whistle Stop Tour (9/1) and Katate Dori (7/1) also meet the two sig stats and have good looking win profiles. Famous Bridge ran well for a long way in this race last year before tiring on the heavy going and looks a decent EW shout. The Irish have a terrib...
Read more

Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 78% LTO: 1-2 = 88% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Romeo Coolio (5/1) has the best profile for EW purposes. Others which have strong EW profiles include Salvator Mundi (8/1), Tripoli Flyer (20/1) and Karbau (20/1). The latter could be anything and at 20/1 at enhanced places could tempt people. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 81% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 82% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 1510 SP 12s and under Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under) Winner analysis: The yea...
Read more

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 97% Season Runs: 2-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 94% Hurdle wins: 0-2 = 97% 1-2 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 89% OR: 122-139 S.D 127-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 114+ EW Analysis: Puturhandstogether (10/1), Holy See (25/1), Q Hill (20/1) and Teriferma (20/1) have excellent EW profiles. Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Distance: = 91% Runs: 1-5 = 100%  Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 82% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 91% OR: 125-139 S.D 127-137 Weight: S.D = 10-9 – 11-7 Best SRPR:  120-140 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Those mentioned above and Total Look (6/1) have the best win profiles. I have just backed Puturhandstogether and will look at the others in more detail on the day.
Read more