Mares Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 97% 6-9 – 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 0-5 = 93%

LTO: 1-3 = 87%

Days: 20+ = 93%

Distance: 20/21f = 90%

Grade: 1-listed = 87%

OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 147+

RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 149+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Not many horses stand out on the stats away from the front two. Verdana Blue (16/1) has a solid profile and the good ground will definitely suit, she does have a grade 1 win under her belt but has looked like she is regressing. Black Tears (14/1) is next best and has Cheltenham Festival form and a 4lb pull with Dame De Compagnie. Not an appealing EW betting heat for me if I’m honest.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-10 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 0-3 = 90%

Days: 20+ = 100%

LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1st = 80%

Grade: 1-2 = 90%

Distance: 20/21f = 100%

OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+

RPR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 155+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-10 FR 6-10 IRE

Significant Stats:

OR 148+ high 156+

RPR 149+ high sig 156+

Runs 0-3

Grade 1-2

Positive correlation between position, OR (148+), RPR (149+), grade 1-2, runs 0-3

Winner analysis:

Concertista (5/4) and Roksana (7/2) look ahead of the others on what we’ve so far and the stats seem to back that up with both meeting the sig stats and producing high RPR’s. Roksana meets all of the general stats and 7/2 looks a fair price, my only concern would be good ground and just lacking the pace, as her best form seems to be over 3 miles. Concertista meets all of generals bar the 155 RPR and she has looked very good in both starts this year and hacked up in the novice’s version of this last year. Lastly Verdana Blue does meet all of the sig stats but I couldn’t back her to win.  

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