Marsh Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 3-6 = 97% 3-5 = 90%

LTO: 1-4 = 93%

Distance: = 93%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Grade: 1-3 = 90% 1-2 = 83%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 147+

Season RPR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

This race looks like it may cut up with horses taking up other engagements so nicking some EW value now may be the way forward. Fusil Raffles (20/1), Latest Exhibition (20/1) and Shan Blue (8/1) have the best EW profiles. Fusil Raffles appreciated the step up in trip back in December and as a former grade 1 winner could be overlooked and may represent EW value and I don't expect to see 20s on the day. It may also be prudent to look at the without fav market in which Shan Blue is 7/2 and Fusil Raffles 10/1.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-8 = 100% 6-7 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Days: 20+ = 100% 40+ = 90%

Distance: = 100%

Grade: 1-3 = 90%

Festival Experience: = 100%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+

Season RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 156+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-8 IRE

Significant Stats:

Previous festival experience

Winner analysis:

Plenty of horses meet the significant stat including the short-priced fav Envoi Allen (5/6). He ticks every stat and is unbeaten in all career starts and I’m sure many people will be having doubles with Monkfish or a few other of the short-priced favs. Whilst I think he will win the price isn’t for me, again with the worry about the last-minute stable change. Fusil Raffles also ticks all the boxes and as stated above I’ll be taking some of the 20s EW and 10s in the WO market. Chantry House ran a good race in last years Supreme Novices so has the important Festival experience, he does however miss out on some stats. Its definitely a race I will run my eye over once the final decs are made. 

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