Queen Mother Champion Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-11 = 98% 6-10 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 100%

Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 88%

LTO: 1-5 = 87%

Distance: = 98%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 87%

OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 166+

Season RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 168+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-11 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

First Flow (14/1) has the best EW profile and this 9-year-old produced his best ever performance last time out winning the grade 1 Clarence House Chase impressively. If the ground came up soft I’d definitely be interesting in backing EW, he does seem very ground dependent however. Next best is reigning champion Politologue (10/1) and if he runs up to his usually standard should pick up some prize money. He is a consistent horse who regularly produces strong RPRs and obviously has course form, I’m sure he will be a popular EW selection for many.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

LTO: 1-5 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 100%

OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 169+

Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

OR 162+ High 169+

Grade 1-2 High grade 1

Season RPR 165+ High 167 +

Correlation between position, OR (169), Grade 1, SRPR (167)

Winner analysis:

Five horses meet the three significant stats and two also meet the correlation and high stats. Chacun Pour Soi (10/11) meets all three and the correlation and has the best general profile overall. He travels strongly throughout his races and his jumping this season his been excellent, the one minor doubt is his lack of Cheltenham form and tackling that hill after what should be a truly run affair. Altior (7/1) is the other horse that meets the significant stats and correlation, however he has a few general stats against him, age being the main one. It will be a superb training performance if NH can get him to regain his trophy and will stamp him as one of the best 2 milers of all time. 

Nube Negra (8/1) who beat Altior last time meets the three sig stats, like First Flow (also meets all 3) he appears to also be ground dependent but requiring a quicker surface, the biggest worry for me is that he has yet to prove he is at grade 1 level. Finally, Politologue is the last horse who meets the significant stats and if there is an EW bet to be had I would lean towards him and also First Flow if the ground turned soft/heavy. 

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