Supreme Novices Hurdle

 

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 98% 5-6 – 92%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97%

Runs: 2-5 = 97% 2-4 = 93%

LTO: 1-3 = 88%

Days: 20+ = 90%

OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 145+

RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 5-8 IRE

EW Analysis:

I will only discuss horses who are at least 4/1 or above in the EW section. Ballyadam (7/1) and Metier (7/1) both meet all of the stats and with bookies offering enhanced placed terms on this race (Will Hill 1st 7 last year for example) should give you a good run.  Blue Lord (16/1) is next best and is worth a second glance. He should appreciate a fast pace to help him settle better and looks a decent EW play especially with enhanced places. 

 

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-6 – 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97%

Runs: 2-4 = 95%

LTO: 1st = 85%

Grade (10 years of data only): 1-listed = 91%

OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 147+

RPR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-8 IRE

Significant Stats:

Age 5+ high sig 6+ (but only IRE Bred)

RPR 143+ high sig 151+

Positive correlation between position, OR (145+) and RPR (146+)

Winner analysis:

First of all, it is vital to check OR’s once the decs are made as they can change due to collateral form etc.

Appreciate It (7/4) meets both the high sig stats and the correlation and is a worthy fav based on his grade 1 wins over in Ireland. He showed he handles the course finishing 2nd in last year’s Champion Bumper and should like the better ground as well. His only negative is age, however not many 7-year olds have run in this for it to be analysed in too much detail, the sig age stat just suggests 4-year olds really struggle to win this. I’ve previously backed the fav at bigger prices so won’t be going in again at these odds however. Metier meets both sig stats and the correlation and has a lovely profile for this race and is a horse I will be backing EW on the day with enhanced places. If he handles better ground he should be thereabouts. Ballyadam meets the sig stats and correlation, however does have a couple of general stats to overcome, LTO and mean RPR. I wouldn’t put anyone backing him EW either. Thedevilscoachman (NR now), Blue Lord, Soaring Glory (8/1) and Irascible (40/1) also meet the important sig stats, not the correlation however, and warrant respect. Indeed, Irascible will be one I will look at again if declared, again with enhanced place terms.

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