Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 2-6 = 98%

LTO: 1-4 = 92%

Days: 20+ = 96%

OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+

RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 144+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR/GB 5-8 IRE

EW Analysis:

Minella Cocooner (13/2) meets most of the general stats and already has a grade 1 win under his belt, not sure I fancy him however and the price doesn’t appeal to me at all. One horse I have backed EW ante post is Shantreusse (8/1) and he is another horse with a good EW profile. Incidentally, he ran in the same race LTO as the stable’s previous winner, Minella Indo and has a similar profile.

 

Win Stats:

Age: 5-7 – 94%

Bred: IRE, FR = 88%

Runs: 3-4 = 88%

LTO: 1-3 = 88%

OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 145+

RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-7 IRE

Significant Stats:

Course winner is a minor sig stat

Winner analysis:

Both Hillcrest (11/4) and Bardenstown Lad (7/1) have course wins behind them and need to be included in the shortlist. Hillcrest looks to have a decent engine; however, his jumping can be suspect at times. BL has plenty of experience and that has been a useful stat to follow down the years and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him EW. The best general profile is the fav Ginto and as mentioned in another post I’ve backed at a much bigger price; I do worry however that this race wasn’t his intended target until Minella Crooners injury.

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