Arkle Novices' Chase 2022

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 98%

Distance: = 97%

Runs: 2-6 = 93%

LTO: 1-3 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 95%

OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 152+

RPR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 158+

Hurdles OR: S.D. 133+ Mean 145+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

No horse over 4/1 has a perfect EW profile. Away from the front three in the market, Haut En Couleurs (7/1), Saint Sam (8/1) and Coeur Sublime (14/1) have the better profiles, however all three do have negatives. HEC (I have backed ante-post) fall LTO certainly isn’t ideally but I do think there is an engine based upon his Triumph ran last year, SS doesn’t have the average hurdle OR of your usual Arkle horse but did stay on well LTO, whilst CS hasn’t hit high enough RPRs this season and his target may be the Grand Annual anyway.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Distance: = 95%

Runs: 1-5 = 100% 3-4 = 75%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Grade 1 or 2 = 75%

OR: S.D = 146+ Mean = 156+

RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 164+

Hurdles OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

RPR 154+ high 162+

HOR 146+ high 153+

OR 146+ high 155+

Grade 1 or 2 winner

Course winner (treat with caution)

Positive correlation between position, OR (146+), RPR (154+), HOR (142+) & grade 1/2 winner

Winner analysis:

4 strong significant stats and correlation to focus on and Edwardstone (9/4) and Blue Lord (7/2) meet all four and the correlation. Edwardstone has looked an improved horse this year, is a solid fav and has achieved the best RPR so far this season. The only minor negative I can see is whether he has been over raced already this season, traditional Arkle winners’ usually have had fewer runs that season. Blue Lord looked set for 2nd in last year’s Supreme and has the best general profile for the race and looks to be the stables number 1 runner. Fences appear to have helped him settle better and he looks a better horse this season. Riviere D’etel (9/2), Saint Sam and Couer Sublime all meet three of the sig stats. The negatives for the mare, RD, is that she doesn’t have the hurdle ratings of an Arkle winner, whilst SS sees to just fall short in grade 1 and 2 events. 

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