Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 – 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95%

Runs: 2-5 = 93% 2-4 = 88%

LTO: 1-2 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 93%

Distance: 20/21f = 77%

OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+

RPR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 149+

RPR Race: S.D. = 147+ Mean = 152+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 5-7 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Some strong stats appearing in the Ballymore which helps narrow down the field considerably. This race could cut up with some horses going elsewhere so there may be some ante post EW value in the market. The horse with the best EW profile is Ginto (9/2) and assuming either Sir G or DD go Supreme I can see his price being shorter on the day. Despite the assumption Ginto is just a big strong galloper he has shown speed in his races so far and seems to handle both good and softer conditions so I wouldn’t put anyone off him. Unfortunately, I hold a 50/1 ante post bet for him to win the Albert Bartlett so a late switch would be great! Journey With Me (6/1) is a horse I have backed ante post for this race, and he has the next best EW profile, I’m hoping there is a cut in the ground as I suspect that will benefit him greatly. Similar profile to JWM is Stage Star (6/1) and Minella Cocooner (8/1), neither appeal to me, however.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 1-4 = 90%

Days: 21+ = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 95%

Distance: 20/21f = 90%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

RPR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 150+

RPR Race: S.D. 149+ Mean 155+

Significant Stats:

RPR Race 155+ so needs to have run within 6lbs (149+)

Distance

Bred IRE or FR

Positive correlation between position, Bred IRE/FR, & RPR Race (149+)

Winner analysis:

The strongest sig stat is an RPR of 149+ and Sir Gerhard, Dysart Dynamo and Hillcrest are the only horses to have run to that level so far this season. If SG runs in this, he will go off odds on, however there is a concern that he doesn’t meet the next strongest sig stat of a distance win. DD also misses out on the distance stat however he has won a bumper in soft ground over 2m 2f, while Hillcrest is more likely for the Albert Bartlett at this stage. If Hillcrest did turn up in this race and the ground is soft, I’d be looking at him as he meets all three sig stats. The EW selection Ginto meets two sig stats, bred and distance and has a good general profile for the race as well. Much will depend on the final decs and going for me and until then I’ll hang fire.