Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-8 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 2-5 = 97%

LTO: 1-4 = 93%

Grade: 1-3 = 83%

Days: 20+ = 100%

OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 148+

HOR: S.D. = 132+ Mean = 143+

RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 156+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Another race in which the general stats are a solid way to narrow down the field. Two horses have perfect EW profiles and I’ve backed both in the last couple of weeks, Ahoy Senor (5/1) and Beacon Edge (16/1). Both horses come into the race in good form, whether Beacon Edge will truly stay this trip I’m uncertain, but at the price I’m willing to find out. Other horses who have strong profiles include Farouk D’alene (16/1) and Gaillard Du Mesnil (20/1) and both are interesting if turning up in this race.

 

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 80%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Grade: 1-3 = 83%

Days: 20+ = 100%

OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 150+

HOR: S.D. = 129+ Mean = 142+

RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 159+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

No significant stats

Winner analysis:

Ahoy Senor has the best general profile, closely followed by Beacon Edge. Bravemansgame (7/4) has looked better for fences this year and has a very strong profile, the one negative is that he is FR bred, IRE bred have a better overall record. If Galopin Des Champs (4/5) turns up here I’ll be pleased having backed ante post, however in terms of the stats he doesn’t have a great profile, again FR bred but also a lack of chasing experience are negatives, three runs minimum is usually the ideal prep. Connections of L'Homme Presse have suggested that they are aiming for this race, again a good profile but the FR bred and low HOR are negatives.

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