Champion Hurdle 2022

EW Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 1-4 = 93% 2-4 = 87%

LTO: 1-3 = 88%

Days: 21+ = 98%

Previous festival experience: = 88%

OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 162+

RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 165+

RPR Race: S.D. 161+ Mean 166+ (I like a horse to have a best RPR within 5lbs of this)

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Like last year Epatante (11/1) has solid EW profile, and she should run her race, I do think she has regressed slightly and the 5 yr. olds coming through are a stronger bunch, however. Teehupoo (8/1) and Appreciate It (7/2) are next best and at the prices the former looks a decent EW shout.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 100%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1st = 80%

Previous festival experience: = 95%

OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 163+

RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 166+

RPR Race: S.D = 166+ Mean = 169+ (horses need to have a best RPR within 5lbs)

Significant Stats:

RPR Race 166+ so I’m looking for at least a best RPR of 161

LTO 1-2. High 1st

Positive correlation between position, RPR race (166+) and previous festival experience.

Winner analysis:

The two significant stats are met by the fav, Honeysuckle (4/7), Appreciate It, and Teehupoo. The mare has a perfect profile and should win but obviously the odds reflect this. One for doubles and trebles. Appreciate It has the potential to win this based upon last years RPRs the clear concern is his lack of recent run, no horse in the last 20 years has won the Champion Hurdle without a prep run. Teehupoo’s 165 RPR LTO proves he has the ability to go close and he looks the best of the 5 yr. olds we have seen, the negative is his lack of Cheltenham experience and running at grade 1 level. Epatante does have a good-looking general profile, but as stated, I don’t think she still has the ability to win this. Whilst Saint Roi (50/1) doesn’t have a very good stats profile for the race, I think 50/1 is overpriced and he will outrun those odds. Personally, I think he was campaigned with a view of getting his mark dropped a few pounds so has been ridden accordingly. I can see him enjoying the strong pace and picking up tired horses up the hill.

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