Queen Mother Champion Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-11 = 98%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 98%

Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 87%

LTO: 1-4 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 87%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 166+

Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 168+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-11 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Nube Negra (10/1) has a nice EW profile for the race and his price is reasonable. Some would argue he was unlucky in this last year having stumbled and needing to be switched at a vital time and if one of the front three under perform he should at least place. Next best is Chacun Pour Soi (9/2) and Greaneteen (25/1) however both have question marks. CPS has to prove he stays up that hill and enjoys travelling over, while Greaneteen isn’t a guaranteed runner, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them EW if they fancy either. It is worth looking at the without Shiskin markets here as well and Nube Negra is 9/2, which again appeals providing the ground is on the good side.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

LTO: 1-5 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 100%

OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 169+

Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

OR 162+ High 169+

Grade 1-2 High grade 1

Season RPR 165+ High 171+

Bred IRE, FR

Correlation between position, OR (162), Grade 1, SRPR (165)

Winner analysis:

If all of the top horses turn up this could be the race of the meeting and would be one to saviour. Four strong sig stats, especially if you consider the high sig stats. Shiskin (4/6) hits all four including the higher ones, as does Energumene (7/2) and CPS. Indeed, all three horses have perfect general profiles for the race as well.

Shiskin prevailed at Ascot LTO and needed every yard of the stiff finish there and I suspect will need a strong pace and the hill to take its toll to win again. There is talk of them riding Energumene a bit differently and maybe sitting off the pace this time which will be interesting to see, maybe they will send CPS forward and dictate the pace with him. Either way it may prove quite a tactical race and a race I can’t wait to watch. Away from those at the head of the market Greaneteen also meets all four sig stats but not the high ones and has a modest profile, Nube Negra meets three (misses the bred stat) and but also has a modest profile. At the moment NN appeals as an EW bet in both markets but I’ll be hanging fire until Weds morning. 

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