Turners Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-8 = 91%

Bred: IRE, FR = 91%

Runs: 3-6 = 97%

LTO: 1-4 = 94%

Distance: = 94%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Grade: 1-3 = 88%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 147+

Season RPR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Just like last year, this race may cut up with few runners being declared, so it may be worth looking at some EW value before the final decs. The stand out horse with the most solid EW profile is Gaillard Du Mesnil (16/1) and he may be worth chancing with NRNB. Next best is Jungle Boogie (10/1) who has been well backed today. He is an unknown quantity and again is worth chancing NRNB.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-7 = 91%

Bred: IRE, FR = 91%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 91%

LTO: 1-2 = 91%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Festival Experience: = 100%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 149+

Season RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-8 IRE

Significant Stats:

Previous festival experience

Winner analysis:

Both Bob Olinger (6/5) and Galopin Des Champs (6/4) meet the sig stat and unsurprisingly they have the best profiles. I have been backing Bob Olinger most of the year so I am happy with my current position, I just wish GDC would go for the 3-mile chase instead! Regardless of whether GDC turns up here, I am still in the believe BO will win with his superior turn of foot. We shall see.

GDM meets the sig stat also and has a solid enough profile, and if he does run here and one of the front two under perform then he should place.

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