Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-6 = 91%

Bred: IRE, FR = 87%

Runs: 2-4 = 93%

Hurdle wins: 1-4 = 100%

Won on a left handed track: = 80%

LTO: 1-2 = 91%

Days: 20+ = 93%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+

Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 5-7 IRE

EW Analysis:

Il Et Temps (13/2) has a strong EW profile and on paper has the strongest form coming into the race. His previous RPR of 158 is the highest in the field and a reproduction of that would see him place at the very least. Marine Nationale (4/1) has the next best profile and the trainer has been very bullish in recent press reports.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 2-4 = 93%

LTO: 1st = 87%

Grade: 1-listed = 93%

Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 87%

Won left handed: = 80%

OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+

RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE

SP Mean: = 12's and under

Significant Stats:

RPR 145+ high sig 151+

Positive correlation between pos - RPR (145) and SP (12's under)

Winner analysis:

The yearly reminder that OR’s and RPRs need double checking when decs are made as they can change to what they are currently.

Facile Vega (2/1) was disappointing on his last run and was lame for a week afterwards so backers must be concerned about that, he does however meet the sig stat and the correlation, and has a solid looking profile. Il Et Temps also meets the sig stat and correlation and has a strong profile, and as discussed looks a solid EW bet. Marine Nationale is another horse meeting the key sig stat and correlation, he isn't for me however. Tahmuras (12/1) also meets the sig stat and has a strong looking profile and his form stacks up well. He looks the best of the GB trained horses. 

There are a few other horses who meet the sig stat, however at this stage they look unlikely to run in this race but I will update once the final decs are made.

As always, good luck with your selection and lets hope the sig stats hold up throughout the week helping us narrow down the fields. 


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