Turners Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-8 = 89%

Bred: IRE, FR = 92%

Runs: 3-6 = 94%

LTO: 1-4 = 94%

Distance: = 92%

Days: 20+ = 97%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 85%

Chase wins: 1-3 = 89%

Left handed win: = 93%

OR: S.D = 146+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 147+

Season RPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 156+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Banbridge (7/2) has the best EW profile away from the fav closely followed by Stage Star (11/1). Banbridge stayed on well over 2 miles last time and also has Festival form which is always a positive.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-7 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR = 92%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 

LTO: 1-2 = 92%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Festival Experience: = 100%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 89%

Left handed win: = 100%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 150+

Season RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-8 IRE

Significant Stats:

Previous festival experience

Runs 2-5

Course minor positive 

Winner analysis:

Banbridge. Stage Star and Appreciate It (4/1) meet all three sig stats and have good looking profiles. Having backed AI ante post I'm hoping he will give a good account of himself. Banbridge looks a decent EW bet to nothing based on the trends. The fav, Mighty Potter (11/8) meets the two main sig stats and has the best general profile, the price is a bit skinny now for me. James De Berlais (16/1) also meets a couple of the sig stats and if it came up very soft could run well. 

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