Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-8 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-5 = 98%

LTO: 1-3 = 86%

Grade: 1-3 = 86%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 75%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Chase wins: 1-3 = 92%

OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 149+

HOR: S.D. = 132+ Mean = 143+

Season RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Stay Away Fay (7/2) and Grey Dawning (5/1) have the strongest EW profiles and if GD were to line up here, I would be interested but currently it looks like the Turners is where he is heading.

 Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 80%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Distance: = 75%

Grade: 1-listed = 100% 1-2 = 83%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 92%

Chase wins: 1+ = 95%

OR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 152+

Season RPR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 159+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

SRPR 155+ High 161+

Winner analysis:

Fact to File (5/6) meets the high sig stat and is a worthy favourite, however he does have some general stats against him and at his current price he makes no appeal to me. SAF and GD also meet the high sig stat and having backed SAF ante post I am happy enough.

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