Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

EW Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 1-4 = 93% 2-4 = 90%

LTO: 1-3 = 88%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Season wins: 1-3 = 92%

Grade LTO: 1 = 80%

Previous festival experience: = 88%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 164+

RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 165+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 5-9 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Irish Point (9/2) is the only horse with a good EW profile and if it remains soft seems a fair play.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 100% 6-8 = 85%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 1-4 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 100%

LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1st = 80%

Previous festival experience: = 95%

Grade: 1-2 = 80%

Grade: Won a graded race that season =92%

Grade run LTO: 1 - listed = 92%

Season wins: 1-3 = 100%

OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 165+

RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

Season wins 1-3.

LTO 1-2

Positive correlation between position, RPR (167+), LTO (1st), season wins (2-3) and previous festival experience.

Winner analysis:

Much has been said about Constitution Hills season and absence and it is a shame we will not see him against State Man this year.

State Man (2/5) is the only horse to meet both the sig stats and the correlation and is the obvious winner. I will be doubling him up on the day with a few of my other bets.

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