David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 6-9 – 92%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 0-5 = 95%

LTO: 1-3 = 87%

Days: 20+ = 92%

Distance: 20/21f = 90%

Grade: 1-listed = 87%

OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+

RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+

EW Analysis:

With Lossiemouth making the market there looks to be some EW value especially if some firms are going enhanced places on the day. Love Envoi (14/1) was well beaten by the fav last time out, however with the step back up in trip likely to suit I expect her to get a bit closer and she has a strong EW profile. Maries Rock (12/1) has a similarly strong EW profile and warrants plenty of respect.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-9 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%

Runs: 0-5 = 100% 0-3 = 85%

Days: 20+ = 92%

LTO: 1-2 = 92% 1st = 77%

Grade: 1-listed = 100%

Distance: 20/21f = 100%

OR: S.D = 146+ Mean = 154+

RPR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 155+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

OR 146+ 

RPR 148+ 

Grade 1-3

Runs 0-4

Positive correlation between position, OR (155+), RPR (156+), runs 0-3.

Winner analysis:

The fav Lossiemouth (1/2) meets all the sig stats and has a strong general profile, the one slight negative is that she has not won over 20/21f and needs to prove she stays. I’ve no doubt a lot of punters will be playing the double with State Man. Love Envoi and Maries Rock also meet the four sig stats and I will be looking at both if they are declared.

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