Gallagher Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 87%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95%

Runs: 2-4 = 92% 

LTO: 1-2 = 92%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 95%

Left-handed win: = 95%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 81%

OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+

RPR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 149+

RPR Race: S.D. = 146+ Mean = 152+

EW Analysis:

The Irish look to hold the aces once again and the stats back that up. Il Atlantique (5/1) and Slade Steel (6/1) have the strongest EW profiles, the latter however looks more likely for the Supreme. Predators Gold (10/1) is next best and is worth considering.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 95%

Bred: IRE, FR = 95%

Distance: = 80%

Runs: 2-6 = 95% 2-4 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 95%

LTO: 1-2 = 95%

Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 92%

Left-handed win: = 92%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 75%

OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+

RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 151+

RPR Race: S.D. 150+ Mean 156+

Significant Stats:

RPR 146+ high 152+

Bred IRE or FR

Positive correlation between position, Bred IRE/FR and RPR (152+) 

Winner analysis:

An RPR of 152+ is a major sig stat and the fav Ballyburn (4/7) is the only horse to have hit it this season (157). Indeed, he meets both sig stats, the correlation and all the general stats and will be tough to beat. Il Atlantique, Predators Gold, Slade Steel and Mercurey (33/1) also meet the two sig stats and those looking to take on the fav may want to focus on them.

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