Queen Mother Champion Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-11 = 98% 7-10 = 82%

Bred: IRE, FR = 82%

LTO: 1-3 = 82%

Season chase wins: 1-4 = 92%

Runs: 2-4 = 88%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 88%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 97%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 166+

Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 168+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 8-10 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Edwardstone (7/1) appeals most as an EW bet and the stats back that up. Gentleman De Mee (40/1) would be interesting if the ground really dries up.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-3 = 85%

LTO: 1-5 = 95% 1-3 = 85%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 100%

Chase wins season: 1-4 = 95%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100%

OR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+

Season RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 172+

Significant Stats:

OR 166+ High 172+

Grade 1

Season RPR 165+ High 170+

Grade LTO 1-2 High 1

Correlation between position, OR (172), Grade 1, SRPR (170), grade LTO (1)

Winner analysis:

El Fabiolo (4/9) is the only horse to meet all of the sig stats and the correlation and with a good round of jumping should take the beating. Jonbon (7/2) meets the four sig stats and has a strong profile as does Edwardstone. I will double EF up with a few other horses throughout the week and if there are eight runners I will be tempted to back Edwardstone EW.

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