Ryanair Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 98% 

Bred: IRE, FR= 93%

Runs: 2-4 = 89% 

Distance: = 93%

Days: 21+ = 94%

Chase wins season: 0-2 = 92%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1-2 = 89%

Placed at previous festival: = 83%

OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+

Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+

Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE

EW Analysis:

Conflated (8/1) and Protektorat (12/1) have excellent EW profiles and I have backed the latter in the hope that they send him to the front and try and make it a real test.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 94%

Bred: IRE, FR = 89%

Runs: 2-4 = 100%

Course winner: = 83%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100%

Placed at previous festival: = 83%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+

Season RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+

Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE

Significant Stats:

OR 160+ High 166+

Season RPR 165+ High 170 +

Best RPR 165+ High 170+

Course winner

Positive Correlation between position, OR (166), SRPR (170), BRPR (170), and course winner

Winner analysis:

Stage Star (4/1) meets all four sig stats and the correlation and loves it at Cheltenham and if you put a line through his last run in which he hated the heavy ground then he should go close. Banbridge (3/1) meets all four sig stats but is reliant on good ground so I would hang fire until closer to the off, while last year’s winner Envoi Allen (7/2) also meets all four sig stats and has shown top level form all season. Finally, Protektorat also meets all four of the sig stats and has the best general profile. I will be adding to my Protektorat bet closer to the off when the going is confirmed.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Ultima Handicap Chase

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 94% 7-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 87% Distance: 24f+ = 78% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 129-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-6 Best RPR Race 142+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : There will be plenty of bookies going extra places so shop around. Sequestered (20/1), Famous Bridge (18/1), Malina Girl(12/1) and The Changing Man (6/1) have lovely EW profiles.  Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 94% 7-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 89% Runs: 2-5 = 94% LTO: 1-5 = 89% Distance: 24f+ = 89% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D = 10-5 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+  Significant Stats: LTO 1-5 Days 0-59 Winner analysis: The four horses above also meet the two sig stats and the win stats. Whistle Stop Tour (9/1) and Katate Dori (7/1) also meet the two sig stats and have good looking win profiles. Famous Bridge ran well for a long way in this race last year before tiring on the heavy going and looks a decent EW shout. The Irish have a terrib...
Read more

Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 86% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 92% Won on a left-handed track: = 78% LTO: 1-2 = 88% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Romeo Coolio (5/1) has the best profile for EW purposes. Others which have strong EW profiles include Salvator Mundi (8/1), Tripoli Flyer (20/1) and Karbau (20/1). The latter could be anything and at 20/1 at enhanced places could tempt people. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 88% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 81% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 88% Won left-handed: = 82% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant Stats: RPR 145+ high sig 1510 SP 12s and under Positive correlation between Pos - RPR (145) and SP (7's under) Winner analysis: The yea...
Read more

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 97% Season Runs: 2-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 94% Hurdle wins: 0-2 = 97% 1-2 = 83% LTO: 1-6 = 89% OR: 122-139 S.D 127-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 114+ EW Analysis: Puturhandstogether (10/1), Holy See (25/1), Q Hill (20/1) and Teriferma (20/1) have excellent EW profiles. Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Distance: = 91% Runs: 1-5 = 100%  Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 82% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 91% OR: 125-139 S.D 127-137 Weight: S.D = 10-9 – 11-7 Best SRPR:  120-140 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Those mentioned above and Total Look (6/1) have the best win profiles. I have just backed Puturhandstogether and will look at the others in more detail on the day.
Read more