Ryanair Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 98% 

Bred: IRE, FR= 93%

Runs: 2-4 = 89% 

Distance: = 93%

Days: 21+ = 94%

Chase wins season: 0-2 = 92%

Grade LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1-2 = 89%

Placed at previous festival: = 83%

OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+

Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+

Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE

EW Analysis:

Conflated (8/1) and Protektorat (12/1) have excellent EW profiles and I have backed the latter in the hope that they send him to the front and try and make it a real test.

Win Stats:

Age: 7-10 = 94%

Bred: IRE, FR = 89%

Runs: 2-4 = 100%

Course winner: = 83%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100%

Placed at previous festival: = 83%

OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+

Season RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+

Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE

Significant Stats:

OR 160+ High 166+

Season RPR 165+ High 170 +

Best RPR 165+ High 170+

Course winner

Positive Correlation between position, OR (166), SRPR (170), BRPR (170), and course winner

Winner analysis:

Stage Star (4/1) meets all four sig stats and the correlation and loves it at Cheltenham and if you put a line through his last run in which he hated the heavy ground then he should go close. Banbridge (3/1) meets all four sig stats but is reliant on good ground so I would hang fire until closer to the off, while last year’s winner Envoi Allen (7/2) also meets all four sig stats and has shown top level form all season. Finally, Protektorat also meets all four of the sig stats and has the best general profile. I will be adding to my Protektorat bet closer to the off when the going is confirmed.

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