Turners Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 3-5 = 87%

LTO: 1-4 = 95%

Days: 20+ = 97%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100%

Left-handed win: = 93%

OR: S.D = 146+ Mean = 151+

HOR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 149+

Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Facile Vega (7/2), Letbeclearaboutit (40/1) and Zanahiyr (20/1) have good EW profiles and are worth considering, although Letbeclearaboutit is a doubtful runner.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-7 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR = 92%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 

LTO: 1-2 = 92%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Distance: = 100%

Festival Experience: = 100%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% 2-4 = 90%

Grade: 1-3 = 85%

Left-handed win: = 100%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 152+

HOR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 149+

Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 157+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-8 IRE

Significant Stats:

Previous festival experience

Course minor positive

40+ days a minor positive correlation 

Winner analysis:

Facile Vega and Iroko (5/1) meet the sig stats and correlation and I am expecting FV to be well backed on the day. It will be a great training performance for Iroko to win with only one chase under his belt. Grey Dawning (5/2) has the best general profile, and I would not put anyone off him even though I think the Browns should be his race.

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