Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 6-7 = 80%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 85%

Runs: 2-5= 95% 3-4 = 80%

Days: 21+ = 95%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 100%

Left-handed win: 92%

Grade: 1-2 = 75%

LTO: 1-2 = 95% 1st = 85%

OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 158+

RPR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 164+

Hurdles OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 153+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 Other

Significant Stats:

RPR 156+

HOR 145+

OR 153+

Chase wins 2+

Positive correlation between position, OR (158+), RPR (161+), HOR (153+), & chase wins (2+)

Winner analysis:

No EW stats with only two places available. Focussing purely on the sig stats, Majborough (8/15) ad Jango Baie (7/1) are the only horses to meet them. The fav is the only horse to meet the correlation and I’m sure many people will be doubling him up with some of the other short priced favs on the first day. I will play the forecast for some fun.

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