Queen Mother Champion Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 92% 7-10 = 83%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 92%

LTO: 1-4 = 88%

Runs: 2-4 = 87%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 88%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 97%

OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+

Season RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 167+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-11 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Marine Nationale (5/1) would be a popular and an emotional winner for all involved and has a strong EW profile. Quilixios (33/1) also has a good profile, and this race has thrown up a few strange results over the years.

Win Stats:

Age: 6-10 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-3 = 90%

LTO: 1-5 = 95% 1-3 = 88%

Days: 21+ = 100% 21-60 = 85%

Distance: = 100%

Grade: 1-2 = 100%

Chase wins season: 1+ = 95%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100%

OR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+

Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+

Significant Stats:

OR 163+ 

Grade 1

Season RPR 165+

Grade LTO 1

Correlation between position, OR (170), Grade 1, SRPR (172), grade LTO (1)

Winner analysis:

Jonbon (10/11) and Energumene (15/2) meet all four of the significant stats. The latter would ideally prefer softer ground, and the fav must prove he enjoys Cheltenham. Solness (8/1) meets three of the sig stats but does have some general stats to overcome and is not for me, furthermore he might have just had a hard season already. Found a Fifty (16/1) also meets three and is worth considering. 


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