Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

EW Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-7 = 92%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98%

Runs: 2-5 = 98%

LTO: 1-4 = 92%

Days: 20+ = 97%

Distance: 20f-24f = 85%

OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 143+

RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Kazansky (16/1), Spinningayarn (12/1), and Thedeviluno (4/1) all have strong profiles and warrant closer consideration.

Win Stats:

Age: 5-7 = 95% 6-7 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-4 = 100% 3-4 = 90%

LTO: 1-4 = 95%

Days: 21+ = 100%

Distance: 19f-24f = 85%

OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+

RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 146+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

Course winner

Age 6-7

Days 21+ High 40+

Winner analysis:

The 40+ days angle is a new significant stat I’ll be using to help narrow the field, although I won’t dismiss a horse that falls just short of it if their overall profile is strong.

Kripticjim (20/1) is the only runner to meet all three key criteria. His BRPR is a little below what you’d usually expect from a winner, but the form of his Cheltenham success reads well enough, with the 4th and 5th both running respectably since.

The three horses highlighted in the each‑way analysis also have solid win profiles and hit two of the significant stats, as does Dr Steinberg (3/1). The concern with the favourite is whether he’ll settle early and truly stay the trip.

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