Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

EW Stats:

Age: 6-8 = 93%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90%

Runs: 2-5 = 98%

LTO: 1-3 = 93%

Grade: 1-3 = 85%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Chase wins: 1-2 = 83%

OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 150+

HOR: S.D. = 134+ Mean = 144+

Season RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 156+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB

EW Analysis:

Final Demand (4/1) holds the strongest each-way statistical profile and, given the stable, it would be no surprise if he were primed perfectly for this race. Kaid D’Authie (7/1) and The Big Westerner (6/1) possess the next-best statistical profiles and also warrant serious consideration.

 Win Stats:

Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 = 90%

Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90% IRE = 75%

Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 85%

LTO: 1-2 = 90%

Grade: 1-3 = 92%

Days: 20+ = 100%

Grade LTO: 1-2 = 86%

Chase wins: 1-4 = 93%

OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 153+

Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 159+

Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-8 IRE/GB

Significant Stats:

SRPR 154+ High 160+

Winner analysis:

Romeo Coolio (4/1) meets the key high sig stat and possesses a very strong overall profile. The main question mark is his first attempt at this trip since his point-to-point days, which introduces a small element of uncertainty. Kaid D’Authie also meets the high significant statistic and similarly boasts a strong statistical profile.

There are several other runners who meet the Season RPR 154+ threshold, so they could be worth examining in more detail if you are considering alternatives. Overall, this looks like a fairly open contest with multiple viable contenders.

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