Significant Horse Racing Stats

What a week with some great equine performances. It wasn't a bad week from a punting perspective either with some nice ante post bets landed and plenty of stats horses winning.  In total 15 Festival winners (see below) were highlighted as they either met significant stats or the general stats and I hope plenty of people backed quite of them. 12/15 winners came in the graded races with three from handicaps and this follows a similar pattern to previous years, although we did hit a 25/1 handicap winner and a few placed horses, so it wasn't all bad in those races.  The focus is on the significant stats, and these are the ones which prove vital when shortlisting horses and this year there was 47 significant stats, out of those 40 were upheld which I am pretty pleased about. The worst performing race for the sig stats was the mares’ hurdle with only 1 of the 4 being upheld. If Telmesomethinggirl, who was still going fairly well when brought down, had stood up, things may ...

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 3-5 = 80% Days: 20-59 = 90% LTO: 1-6 = 100% Season:  Novice or 2 nd  = 90% OR: 135-145 S.D 138-145 Weight: S.D 11-3 – 11-10 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 139+ Weight 11-3+ LTO 1-6 Winner analysis: A few horses meet the three sig stats and these four also meet all of the general stats, Hollow Games (7/1), Adamantly Chosen (7/1), Grand Jury (22/1) and The Goffer (16/1). I'm struggling to understand why GJ is 3 times the price of Hollow Games and he definitely catches my eye. AC has been steadily brought along this season and I've backed EW.  I have backed Chemical Energy ante post and he could be well treated so I'm still hopeful.   

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 80% Distance: 24f+ = 80% OR: Mean 137+ SP: 14s and under Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: For some reason I've backed Billaway ante post for the third year running despite him letting me down the previous couple of years, third times a charm however! He does meet all of the stats and I'm sat on value so cant complain. Winged Leader (11/2) meets the general stats and put up an excellent RPR LTO so has to be taken seriously. Bob & Co (13/2) was travelling well in this last year when unseating 3 out and has a strong profile, if the ground remains on the soft side he should have an excellent chance. Two other horses have strong stat profile, Dubai Quest (11/1) and Pont Aven (11/1), the latter was a decent horse for Willie Mullins so it wouldn't surprise me to see him finish in the first 4. Happy to sit on my Billaway slip and see how the ground is riding before ad...

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 92% Runs: 2-4 = 83% Season: Novice – 3 rd  = 92% OR: 134-158 S.D 132-146 Weight: 10-5 – 11-12 S.D 10-5 – 11-5 Significant Stats: Days 40+ LTO 1-6 OR 135-145 Winner analysis: Not many general stats but three sig stats, with particular focus on those having had a 40 day break. Call Me Lyreen (40/1), My Mate Mozzie (22/1, Farout (33/1), West Cork (10/1), State Man (10/3), Colonel Mustard (7/1), Top Bandit (16/1), and Gua Du Large (33/1) meet all the stats. I like the look of C Mustards form and think he will run a big race, I was keen on Top Bandit, however quite a few of Elliott's handicap horses appear to have underperformed so that tempers my enthusiasm. State Man is well regarded however that is clearly reflected in his price, MMM has some strong novice form, he did however run poorly LTO, and West Cork doesn't appear as well handicapped as others but his trainer does have a good record in the race so needs closer inspection. ...

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, = 90% Runs: 1-6 = 100% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 90% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-146 Weight: 10-5 – 11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-9 IRE Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: These four horses catch the eye and the meet the stats, Cavalry Master (28/1), Grand Paradis (15/2), The Glancing Queen (4/1), and Adrimel (11/1). I've backed GP ante post so in a good position there and I'll be adding Adrimel EW, who should enjoy the underfoot conditions. 

Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 90% 7-8 = 80% Bred: IRE, USA, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: = Not a winner = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% OR: 130-149 S.D 137-143 Weight: 11-0 – 11-9 Significant Stats: Novice or 2nd season chaser Winner analysis: Frontal Assault (7/1) meets the sig stat and the general stats and is a horse I've backed a bigger prices ante post. I'm hopeful he will handle the ground and will be disappointed if he isn't thereabouts. Aint That A Shame (8/1) meets the sig stat and generals and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. Mister Fogpatches (9/1), Mister Coffey (12/1) and Come On Teddy (10/1) also meet all of the stats and are worth looking at

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 84% OR: 133-152 S.D 135-147 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-6 – 11-9 Qualifying rating: S.D 131 - 145 Qualifying position: 1-4 = 83% Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: These horses meet the stats and should handle the soft conditions, Sassy Yet Classy (12/1), Third Wind (25/1), Stoney Mountain (66/1) and Winter Fog (13/2). Not doing too well with the handicaps so far, but I've backed Third Wind and Winter Fog this morning and I'm going back through SYC form. I have backed Dunboyne and Folcano ante post and I'm hopeful both will go on the ground. 

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 100% Bred: IRE, GB = 90% Career Bumper Runs: 1-4 = 100% 2-3 = 90% Season Runs: 1-3 = 90% LTO: 1st = 100% OR: S.D = 122+ Mean = 128+ RPR: S.D = 123+ Mean = 131+ Significant Stats: RPR 126+ Age 5-6 CBR 2-3 Winner analysis: American Mike (11/4) and Facile Vega (6/4) are the only horses to meet all three sig stats and having backed AM ante post at decent prices I feel in a decent position. 

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 90%  Runs: 2-5 = 90% 2-4 = 80% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Season: Novice/2nd season = 80% OR: 138-150 S.D 139-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-8 S.D 10-9 – 11-7 Hurdles OR: Mean 138+ Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Keep it nice and short, these horses meet the stats, A Wave Of The Sea (25/1), Before Midnight (16/1), Elixir De Nutz (18/1), Thyme White (12/1), and Gumball (33/1). I will be looking at these in more detail and taking advantage of the extra places available. 

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 92% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 92% OR: 135-153 S.D 138-150 Weight: 10-6 – 11-10 S.D 10-8 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 139-151 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: When applying the above stats and some other general handicap hurdle stats, I have a shortlist of McFabulous (16/1), Saint Felicien (6/1), Grand Roi (22/1), Gerry Clermont (33/1), and Camprond (8/1). I'll spend time in the morning going through form and ground suitability and look to back a couple EW if the prices hold up.  

Last ten years’ worth of data. EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 1-6 = 97% Days: 21+ = 88% OR: 124-139 S.D 128-138 Weight: S.D = 10-11 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 120-137 EW Analysis: Four horses meet the EW stats which include, Doctor Churchill (50/1), Ebasari (14/1), Britzka (20/1), and HMS Seahorse (11/1). Davy Russell takes the ride on Ebasari which is a major plus as if there is a jockey going to get a horse to travel into a race and produce at the right time, he’s the right man for the job. Paul Nolan knows how to ready a horse for Cheltenham and his HMS Seahorse has been steadily brought along this season and needs looking at, he achieved some pretty good RPRs on the flat. Britzka is another one of Gordon Elliotts and at one point was the ante post favourite for this race. Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 1-4 = 100% 3-4 = 80% Days: 21+ = 90% 21-60 = 80% OR: 125-139 S.D 126-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-6 Best SRPR:  120-143 Si...

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% 7-9 – 80% Bred: IRE = 93% Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: 1-5 = 93% Days: 0-59 = 87% Distance: 24f+ = 87% OR: 129-155 S.D 136-149 Weight: S.D = 10-4 – 11-6 RPR Race:  142+ Cross tab Age/Bred: FR 6 IRE/GB 7-11 Significant Stats: LTO 1-4 Days 0-59 Winner analysis: Quite a few horses on the shortlist after applying both the significant stats. When applying all the general stats you aren’t left with any horse this has a perfect profile. Death Duty (12/1) is the horse with the strongest profile, and I’ll be backing EW first 7 places with Skybet. Nothing else stands out on the stats. One of my ante post bets in this is Tea Clipper (20/1) and with the application of cheekpieces and a recent wind op I think he will run a big race despite missing one of the sig stats.

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 98%   Days: 21+ = 97% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+ RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs) EW Analysis : Last years winner, Minella Indo (5/1) comes good at this time of the year, and I am in doubt he will be primed to his best in his attempt to win the Gold Cup again. He has the exact profile required and seems a fair EW bet. Protektorat (8/1) is another horse with a strong profile, I’m not convinced his form is up to this level however and he doesn’t tempt me, others may think differently. Two-time winner Al Boum Photo (10/1) has the same stats profile as the aforementioned, it is concerning that his stable wasn’t overly happy with him recently. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 1-4 = 95% LTO: 1-2 = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 95% 1 = 85% Festival Experience: = 90% OR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = ...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-6 = 98% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Days: 20+ = 96% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 144+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR/GB 5-8 IRE EW Analysis : Minella Cocooner (13/2) meets most of the general stats and already has a grade 1 win under his belt, not sure I fancy him however and the price doesn’t appeal to me at all. One horse I have backed EW ante post is Shantreusse (8/1) and he is another horse with a good EW profile. Incidentally, he ran in the same race LTO as the stable’s previous winner, Minella Indo and has a similar profile.   Win Stats: Age: 5-7 – 94% Bred: IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 3-4 = 88% LTO: 1-3 = 88% OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 145+ RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: Course winner is a minor sig stat Winner analysis: Both Hillcrest (11/4) and Bardenstown Lad (7/1) have course wins behind them and need to be included in the shortl...

EW Stats: Runs: 1-4 = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 97% Distance: = 98% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 133+ Mean = 139+ RPR Race: S.D. = 141+ Mean = 147+ If Flat bred OR rating: Mean 82+ EW Analysis : Not that many stats to get stuck into so I will keep it short. Fil D’or (11/2) has the strongest EW profile. Win Stats: Runs: 1-5 = 95% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 0-60 = 100% Distance: = 95% OR: S.D = 135+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 134+ Mean = 140+ RPR Race: S.D = 145+ Mean 151+ Flat rating: Mean = 84+ Significant Stats: RPR min 141+ Runs 1-4 Winner analysis: Three horses meet both sig stats, Vauban (7/4), Pied Piper (5/2) and Fil D’Or. Having backed Vauban ante post I have strong position and I think he will confirm placing with Fil D’Or providing the ground does not come up very soft. If it did (unlikely at this stage) become soft, then I will be looking to add Fil D’Or EW.

EW Stats: Age: 5-11 = 100% 6-9 = 87% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 95% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Grade: 1 or 2 = 90% OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-11 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Flooring Porter was highlighted last year as a horse who had a good EW profile and so it proved! Nothing is standing out at a decent price this year with the only horses with strong EW profiles being those at the head of the market. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 95% Distance: = 80% LTO: 1-2 = 85% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% OR: S.D = 155+ Mean = 164+ Season RPR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+ Significant Stats: OR 158+ High 164+ Season RPR 160+ High 166 + Correlation between position, OR (164), SRPR (165), Bred (IRE, FR) and runs (2-4) Winner analysis: One fact I’ve noticed about this race is that younger horses have been doing well lately with 8/8 of the last winn...