Significant Horse Racing Stats

Win Stats: Bred: IRE, GB, USA = 95% Season Runs: 0-1 = 100% Days: 20+ = 90% Career Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 100% Group: 1-3 = 90% OR: S.D = 112+ Mean = 118+ Stallion index: 7.4 – 11.7 S.D. 8.6 – 11.7 Significant Stats: OR 112+ Days 20+ SR 0-1 CR 2-5 Group 1-3 Stallion index 8.7+ 8.9+ preferred  LTO 1-2 Positive correlation between pos - OR (112), days (20+), SR (0-1) and group (1-3) Winner analysis: Seven significant stats and a strong correlation to focus on. The fav Native Trial meets 5 sig stats, his negatives are days since last run and stallion index. The latter stat is important and suggests that NT has to prove he stays a mile at group 1 level. I'm not interested in taking even money to find out. His stablemate Coroebus (11/2) meets all 7 sig stats and the correlation and I think he has a big chance. If his draw doesn't hinder him he should be thereabouts, his stable is in red hot form, and the form of his 2 year old races looks strong, and I've been backing him E

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% Runs: 3-6 = 91% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ SRPR: S.D. = 147+ Mean 152+ Significant Stats: SRPR 147+ OR 147+ Winner analysis: State Man (6/5), Three Stripe Life (3/1) and Flame Bearer (9/2) meet the two sig stats and the generals. I've not a had bet in this race and I'm not sure I will, but if pushed, I'd take on the fav with the other horses. 

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-5 = 91% Days: 0-59 = 91% LTO: 1-3 = 91% Cheltenham run: = 91% Grade 1 = 91% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ SRPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ Significant Stats: OR 155+ LTO 1-4. Chelt run Winner analysis: Super mare Honeysuckle (1/4) and Saint Roi meet the three sig stats. Clearly Honeysuckle is not a price for a bet so I'm looking at Saint Roi at 6/4 in the WO market. 

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 3-6 = 88% Days: 0-59 = 88% Distance: = 94% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 152+ Significant Stats: Runs 3-6 OR 152+ Winner analysis: Gentleman De Mee (4/5), Blue Lord (6/1) and Gabynako (11/2) meet the sig stats. I was impressed with GDM LTO, my concern would be the quick turnaround. I'll probably leave this race alone and just enjoy watching it.  

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 82% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 158+ Cross tab: Age/Bred 6-9 FR, 6-11 IRE/GB  Significant Stats: Age – Avoid 5 yr old's. 6-9 yr olds preferred  LTO 1-5 Winner analysis: Klassical Dream (5/4) meets the sig stat and all of the generals and I've backed him as a single and in a few doubles as well. 

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 4+ = 92% Days: 0-59 = 100% Avoid LTO winners = 92% OR: S.D 120-142 Weight: S.D. 9-10 – 11-2 Cross tab Age Bred: F 6-8 IRE 7-10 Significant Stats: Bred IRE/FR Winner analysis: This race has changed and is now ran over an extra furlong than in previous years, it shouldn't impact the stats however. Egality Mans (13/2), Foxy Jacks (9/1), Discordantly (16/1), Rebel Gold (18/1) and R'evelyn Pleasure (50/1) all meet the sig stat and general stats and are worth looking at in further detail. 

Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 89% Runs: 4+ = 89% Days: 0-59 = 94% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% 1 = 82% Distance: 24f+ = 82% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+ Significant Stats: Age 7-9 Winner analysis: Minella Indo (7/1) and Galvin (5/1) meet the sig stat and have the best profiles. They both ran well in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, and providing they aren't over the top should be thereabouts. I'll be backing both EW

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 3+ = = 100% Days: 0-59 = 100% OR: S.D = 134+ Mean = 143+ Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: A poor race for stats. Minella Cocooner (9/2) has the best general profile and I've backed EW. Journey With Me (15/2) also has a strong profile but I'm not keen on backing him today. 

Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, = 90% LTO: 1-5 = 90% Days: 0-59 = 100% Runs: = 4+ 100% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 150+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-8 IRE Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Capodanno (7/2) and Fury Road (6/1) have the best general profiles. I backed Fury Road ante post EW over the weekend and providing the Aintree run doesn't come too soon he should make the places at least.  

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR, = 100% Runs: 3-5 = 88% LTO: 1-6 = 100%  Days: 0-59 = 100% Distance: = 100% Cheltenham Run: Yes = 88% Cheltenham Race: QM or Ryanair = 88% Grade: 1-2 = 100% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 168+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 163+ Winner analysis: Energumene (8/11) and CPS (15/8) meet the sig stat and look to have the race between them. The fav has the better general profile and should win, however it's another no bet race for me and I'll be happy watching what should be a fascinating race.  

Analysing the stats over the previous few Punchestown Festivals shows mixed results. The stats seem to be more limited and fewer significant stats compared to Cheltenham and Aintree which often means I don't have a bet in the race  Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100%  Runs: 3-6 = 93% LTO: 1-3 = 93% Days: 0-59 = 86% Distance 16f: = 93% OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 144+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-8 Other Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Limited stats and no significant stats alongside a small field means a no betting heat for me. Sir G (4/6) has the best general stats. I'd imagine Patrick will set a strong gallop on Dysart and it will be a case of whether Sir G can pick him off. 

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, = 90% IRE = 75% Days: 20-84. S.D. 20-52 Runs: 3-6 = 100% Chase Runs: 1-5 = 95% Distance 24f+ = 95% Running Style: Prom or Mid Div = 90% OR: 136-160 S.D. 138-153 Weight: 10-3 – 11-9 S.D. 10-5 – 11-3 Crosstab Age/Bred: FR 9-11 IRE 8-11 Significant Stats: Runs 3+ High 4+ Winner analysis: I generally rule out horses who haven't had at least 3 runs since Sept as it is the strongest stat that holds up year after year. The horses that meet the sig stat and all of the generals are Good Boy Bobby (33/1), Top Ville Ben (100/1), Cloth Cap (25/1), Death Duty (50/1) and Dingo Dollar (66/1). 

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 94% Runs: 3+ = 88% OR: 123-149 S.D. 131-145 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D. 10-5 – 11-5 Significant Stats: Cheltenham run slight positive Winner analysis: Tea Clipper (7/1), Oscar Elite (15/2), Admirel (20/1), Grumpy Charley (25/1) and MInt Condition (25/1) meet the sig stat and all of the generals. I've backed TC, OE and MC all EW this evening and I'm hopefully one of them will hit the target. 

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 94% Runs: 2-5 = 100% Grade: 1 or 2 = 94% OR: S.D. 157+ Mean 164+ Season RPR: S.D. 157+ Mean 165+ Significant Stats: OR 157+ High 164+ Season RPR 157+ High 165+ LTO 1-5 Positive correlation between position, OR (165+), LTO (1-5) and season RPR (165+) Winner analysis: The three horses at the head of the market meet the sig stats. Flooring Porter (7/4) landed me a nice bet at Cheltenham and he has the best general profile and is close to meeting the correlation as well. Thyme Hill (5/2) won this last year and will be hoping to get closer to FP and I think the flat track will play to his strengths. Champ (4/1) doesn't interest me as I don't think he will get any closer to the front two than what he did at Cheltenham. 

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Days: 0-59 = 94% Runs: 3+ = 94% Distance: 100% OR: S.D. 145+ Mean 155+ Season RPR: S.D. 151+ Mean 161+ Significant Stats: OR 152+ Grade 1 or 2 SRPR 159+ Positive correlation between position, OR (152+), Grade 1-2 and season RPR (159+) Winner analysis: Edwardstone (4/6) and Third Time Lucki (5/1) are the only horses to meet all three sig stats and the correlation. TTL has had to chase home Edwardstone twice already this season and I can't see him revering the form. It's quite simply Edwardstones to lose!

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 94% Days: 20-59 = 100% 20-39 = 88% Runs: 3-5 = 88% OR: S.D. 139+ Mean 147+ Season RPR: S.D. 145+ Mean 151+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-7 IRE/GB Significant Stats: SRPR 145+ OR 147+ Winner analysis: The SRPR stat appears to be the strongest and both Stage Star (11/1) and Three Stripe Life (3/1) meet it. Indeed the fav meets both the sig stats and based on his form behind Sir Gerhard you can understand why he is the fav. My main concern with him is Gordon Elliotts form, his horses just seem to running below par in my opinion but I'll take my chance. Stage Star has to put a disappointing  run behind him last time out and I'm not convinced his form is that strong. 

Win Stats: Age: 4-7 = 83%  Bred: IRE, GB, FR = 100% Days: 0-39 = 92% Runs: 3+ = 92% OR: S.D 127-141 Crosstab Bred/Age: FR 5-6 IRE/GB 4-7   Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Not a lot to go on really but these four horses are on the shortlist, Falvoir (18/1), Washington (13/2), Richmond Lake (9/1), and Hacker Des Places (12/1). I'll be spending the morning going through the form and will look to back at least a couple of them EW. 

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 6-7 = 88% Bred: IRE, GB = 88% Days: 0-39 = 88% Runs: 2-6 = 100% OR: S.D 135+ Mean 142+ Season RPR: S.D 145+ Mean 150+   Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: As with the opening chase on day one, I think this is a weak Grade 1. Unfortunately, no significant stats to look at, the stat that came closest to significant was the SRPR of 139+. Bambridge (5/2), Gelino Bello (6/1) and Green Book (12/1) have achieved that so far this season and all have solid profiles.

Win Stats: Age: 6-11 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR = 94% LTO: Not a winner = 100% Days: 0-39 = 94% Runs: 3+ = 100% OR: 124-154 S.D 129-147 Weight: 10-0–11-8 S.D 10-2–11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 9-11 IRE 6-10 FR Significant Stats: Days 0-39 Winner analysis: Hugely competitive field so make sure you take advantage of the extra place offers with the bookies. Using the sig stat and generals the field is narrowed down to Tamaroc Du Mathan (20/1), Snugsborough Hall (20/1), Mister Coffey (9/1), Fantastic Lady (14/1), Via Dolorosa (33/1), Spiritofthegames (16/1), Mister Whitaker (33/1), and Batcio (20/1). Not had a thorough look through yet so will go back through the above.

Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR = 94% Days: 0-39 = 100% Runs: 3-5 = 94% Cheltenham run: Yes = 100% Cheltenham Race: QM or Ryanair = 100% Grade: 1 = 94% OR: S.D 160+ Mean 168+ Season RPR: S.D 163+ Mean 171+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 8-10 IRE 6-8 FR Significant Stats: Season RPR 163+ Grade 1 OR 160+ 168+ high Runs 3-5 Days 0-39 Cheltenham run but must be in the QM or Ryanair Winner analysis: Funambule Sivola (6/1) meets 5/6 of the sig stats and has the best profile and I’ve already backed EW. I’m pretty confident of a big run, I just hope the trip doesn’t stretch him too much. The fav, Fakir D’Oudairies (13/8) meets 4/6 and is obviously FS main danger.  

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Days: 20-59 = 94% Runs: 4-6 = 94% Cheltenham run: Yes = 88% OR: S.D 145+ Mean 152+ Season RPR: S.D 160+ Mean 164+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 IRE 5-7 FR Significant Stats: Season RPR 160+ High 164+ Winner analysis: Despite the small field this looks a cracking race. Hopefully there will be enough juice in the ground for L’Homme Presse (11/8) to take his place as he meets the sig stat and has the best general profile.

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 94% Days: 0-39 = 89% Runs: 2-5 = 89% OR: 128+ S.D 132+ Mean 141+ Season RPR: 133+ S.D 135+ Mean 146+ Avoid grade 1 winners = 100% Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: Despite the finishing distance behind Constitution Hill, Jonbon (6/5) ran a good race chasing the pace and being up there from the outset. He and First Street (5/1) have the best profiles and Nicky Henderson should be winning this.  

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, GB = 94% Runs: 1-5 = 88% Days: 20+ = 88% OR: 124-145 S.D 127-140 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-5 – 11-3 Significant Stats: Distance 20/21f slight positive Bred FR negative Winner analysis: Loads of horses meet the sig stats and the generals and they include Some Day Soon (40/1), Tronador (16/1), Highway One O Two (12/1), Navajo Pass (33/1), Politesse (16/1), Solwara One (40/1) and Speech Bubble (8/1). I’ll assess the ground after day one and go through the form again, but at first glance I think SDS is overpriced, last year’s easy winner Tronador could be well handicapped and SB form looks good.  

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 89% Bred: IRE, FR = 89% Runs: 4+ = 94% Days: 0-59 = 94% OR: 129-149 S.D. 131-141 Weight: 9-9 – 11-10 S.D = 10-1 – 11-3 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 7-9 IRE Significant Stats: OR 141 and under Winner analysis: These horses meet the sig stat and the general stats and these are the ones I will shortlist, then go through the form etc. Dancing On My Own (28/1), King D’Argent (9/1), Shakeem Up’Arry (18/1), Gunsight Ridge (9/1), Fugitif (33/1), and Espion Du Chenet (25/1).