Significant Horse Racing Stats

2:30 – 1 sig stat. B Monarch (150/1), S Glory (125/1), S Mariner (11/1), S Symbol (22/1), S Prospect (9/1) and Tribeca (33/1) meet it.  3:05 - 1 sig stat. Goliath (9/2), Kalpana (11/4) and GGiiavelloto (12/1) meet it and have the best general profiles.  3:40 – 0 sig stats.  Overpass (18/1), L Forest (9/1), and Sotana Reve (11/4) have the best general profiles 4:20 - 1 sig stat. S Strike (15/8) and Thesecretadversary (16/1) meet it and have the best general profiles.  5:00 - 0 sig stat. 14 horses have strong general profiles. Ten Pounds (11/1), Completely Random (11/1) and Realign (10/1) are ones I'm looking at EW.

2:30 – No sig stats. Sun Goddess (11/10), L O Dawn (15/2), Jolivette (10/1), Libertango (12/1), and Dark Issue (20/1). 3:05 - 2 sig stats. C Darwin (14/1), Coppull (12/1), V Sun (13/8), W Approach (12/1), Samangan (16/1), Zanthos (20/1), and H Anna (25/1) meet both. W Approach, V Sun and H Anna have the best general profiles as well. 3:40 – 1 sig stat.   P D Harve (10/1) and N Dancer (14/1) meet it and have the best profiles. 4:20 - 2 sig stats. Precise (4/6) and True love (11/4) only horses to meet both. 5:00 - 1 sig stat. Seet (6/1), Repel (28/1), Q Mutiny (12/1), Glyfada (4/1), Bintaziza (17/2) and H Breeze (66/1) meet it and  have the best general profiles. 5:35– 1 sig stat. Causeway (11/8) only horse to meet it.

2:30 - 2 sig stats.  Revels (11/1), Sea Venture (9/1), Nola Soul (5/1) and Aix La Chapelle (11/4) meet both. 3:05 – No sig stats. Into The light (5/1) and Enceladus (9/1) have the best general profiles. 3:40 – 1 sig stat. Earth Shot (11/2) and Gilded Prize (7/2) meet the sig and have the best general profiles. 4:20 - 1 sig stat. Trawlerman (3/1), Scandinavia (9/4) and Al Riffa   (8/1) meet it. 5:00 – 1 sig stat. St Anton (16/1), Victory Tip (40/1), Charly (40/1), Conclave (28/1), Langstone (18/1) Outback Heat (12/1) and Jamestown (8/1) meet it and have the best general fit. 5:35 – No sig stats. Generals are Endorsement (7/4) and Morshadi (6/1).

2:30 - 2 sig stats. Wild Flower (9/1), Victorious (9/2), and Ruiva (16/1) all meet both. 3:05 - 0 sig stats. Limestone (10/3), and P O Spain (10/1) have the best general stats. 3:40 - 0 sig stats. Best on generals are Blue Bolt (7/2) and Cathedral (7/1). 4:20 - 1 sig stat. Ombudsman (11/8), Minnie Hauk (8/1) and Daryz (2/1) meet it.  5:00 - 1 sig stat. Horses 9st 4 or under. Loads meet it. La Botte (14/1), Indalo (14/1), and Jagged Edge (8/1) are three that caught my eye. 6:10- 0 sig stats. Loads come out on generals, I have backed Controlla (7/2).

Narrowing the fields using the sig stats and general trends: 2:30 - 2 sig stats and one correlation. Notable Speech (5/2), Z Olympios (11/1), O Ballo (7/2), M Thunder (7/2), and Damysus (11/1) all meet the sig stats. Best on generals are N Speech and Z Olympios. 3:05 - 1 sig stat. G Barrier Reef (13/2), Confucius (9/4), C A Dash (10/1), and N I Vegas (10/1) meet it. 3:40 - 2 sig stats and one correlation. Asfoora (11/1) meets both sig stats and the corelation. These meet the two sig stats; Time F Sandals (18/1), American Affair (10/1), N Raider (7/1), J M Jungle (80/1), Cover Up (33/1), and Mgheera (66/1). 4:20 - 2 sig stats. Bow Echo (1/1) and Gstaad (9/4) meet both.  5:00 - 1 sig stat. Bunting (18/1), S Arturo (40/1), Puturhandstogether (13/2), Mordor (33/1), Westminster Moon (18/1), All In You (16/1) and Comfort Zone (25/1) meet it and all of the general stats.  5:35 - 1 sig stat. W Hawkeye (16/1), Galen (12/1) R Rhyme (12/1), and Map of Stars (15/2) meet it and...

12:45 - 3 sig stats. Kala Conti (4/1) meets all three and I've backed EW. 1:20 - No sig stats. Loads meet the general stats. Quantum Quest (22/1), Duke Silver (16/1), Fortune Timmy (7/1), and Ikarak (25/1) are some that caught my eye. Not a race I'll be heavily involved in. 1:55 - 3 sig stats. No horse meets all three. Bossman Jack (11/4), Ballyfad (3/1), and Soilder Reeves (15/2) meet two. 2:30 - No sig stats. Terrible stats race. 3:05 - 1 sig stat. Home By The Lee (8/1), Impose Toi (7/1), and Hiddenvally Lake (13/2) only horses to meet it. 4:00 - 2 sig stats. Johnnywho (12/1), Oscars Brother (18/1), Montys Star (14/1), Captain Cody (16/1), and Stellar Story (25/1), meet both and have strong general profiles.  5:00 - No sig stats. Bass Hunter (9/4), Look Me (7/2), and Ronnie Russet (11/1) have the best general profiles.  Best of luck. 

What a fantastic week—great to see such competitive fields, especially in the graded races. Tuesday Review: The week got off to a flying start in the Supreme Novices’, with Old Park Star and Sober Glory (14/1 at the time) finishing first and second, and all three key stats holding up. In the Arkle, Kargese (6/1) was highlighted as a strong each-way option and also featured prominently in the winner analysis, meeting three of the four key stats—the only missing one being chase wins that season. The Fred Winter proved productive too, with the analysis pointing towards placed horses Winston Junior, Kilycot (40/1 SP), and Pourquoi Pas Papa (28/1 SP). There was no luck in the Ultima, although the winner did meet the significant stat of a 5lb+ RPR vs OR, which strengthens confidence in that stat. In the Champion Hurdle, the two mares who finished first and second had the strongest profiles, and having backed Lossiemouth ante-post, that was a pleasing result. Finally, in the Plate, Mad...

EW Stats: Bred: IRE/FR/GB = 97% Season hurdle runs: 1-4 = 90% Career hurdle runs: 1-6 = 95% 2-5 = 79% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Days: 21+ = 95% 21-60 =82% OR: S.D = Min = 128+ S.D = 139+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 139+ If Flat bred OR rating: S.D = 73+ M 85+ EW Analysis : The two fillies, Selma De Vary (7/2) and Highland Crystal (8/1) have the best EW profiles.  Win Stats: Bred: IRE/FR = 92% Career hurdle runs: 1-4 = 85% Season hurdle runs: 1-3 = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 100% Days: 0-60 = 92% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 75% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 133+ Mean = 140+ Flat rating: S.D 80+ Significant Stats: Career hurdle runs 1-4. Winner analysis: Again, the two fillies have the strongest profiles and I've backed both EW.  

Win Stats: Age: 7-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Season Runs: 3 = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1st = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Grade LTO: 2-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 80% Festival Experience: 80% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 153+ SRPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 155+ Significant Stats: OR 150+  SRPR 152+  Winner analysis: Only 5 years of data so a very small sample to work with. Based on the sig stats, Dinoblue (6/4) and Spindleberry (9/2) are the only two horses to meet them.

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-7 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 98% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Days: 20+ = 97% Distance: 20f-24f = 85% OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Kazansky (16/1), Spinningayarn (12/1), and Thedeviluno (4/1) all have strong profiles and warrant closer consideration. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 95% 6-7 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% 3-4 = 90% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: 19f-24f = 85% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Course winner Age 6-7 Days 21+ High 40+ Winner analysis: The 40+ days angle is a new significant stat I’ll be using to help narrow the field, although I won’t dismiss a horse that falls just short of it if their overall profile is strong. Kripticjim (20/1) is the only runner to meet all three key criteria. His BRPR is a little below wh...

EW Stats: Age: 7-9 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 1-4 = 100%    Distance: 24f+ = 97% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 90% Festival Experience: = 97% OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 172+ Season RPR: S.D. = 164+ Mean = 171 EW Analysis : The Jukebox Man (4/1) and Gaelic Warrior (4/1) have the best profiles. I have backed both EW a few weeks ago. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 80% Runs: 1-4 = 100% LTO: 1-4 = 100% Days: 40+ = 90% Grade: 1 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 80% Festival Experience: = 100% OR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 168+ Mean = 175+ Season RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean 174+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 OR 166+ BRPR 168+ Winner analysis: Plenty of horses tick the sig‑stat boxes, but once you layer in the general stats, you’re really down to the two already mentioned plus Grey Dawning (12/1). I’m happy with the pair I’ve gone for. The only niggle is last year’s winner—if he comes ...

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Runs: 0-4 = 92% Season: 1-3 = 92% Novice/2 nd  = 77% LTO: 1-4 = 85% OR: 129-158 S.D 132-146 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-5 Significant Stats: OR 144 and under Correlation with Position & LTO (1-4) Winner analysis: Any runner from the Mullins or Skelton yards warrants serious consideration. Murcia (6/1), Sizandahalf (16/1), Jubilee Alpha (20/1), Joyeuse (20/1), and Tellherthename (16/1) all meet the significant stats as well as the broader general trends.

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 93% OR: Mean 134+ SP: Mean 18s or under Significant Stats: Age 8+ High 9+ Winner analysis: Barton Snow (16/1), Its On The Line (11/2), Panda Boy (7/1), Stattler (14/1), and Wiilitgoahead (16/1) all fit both the significant stats and the overall race profile. I’ve backed Panda Boy each-way at ante‑post and will look to add a couple more closer to the day.

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Runs: 2-5 = 86% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1-4 = 93% Season:  Novice or 2nd = 93% OR: 135-145 S.D 137-145 Weight: S.D 11-3 – 11-9 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 137+ High 140+ Weight 11-3+ LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: Eight horses make the significant stat shortlist: It’s Bilbo (20/1), Nurse Susan (20/1), Sa Fureur (33/1), Farfromnowhere (40/1), Karl Des Tourelles (40/1), Fiercely Proud (20/1), East India Express (12/1), and De Capo Glory (50/1). When the broader trends are applied, the field narrows to Karl Des Tourelles, Fiercely Proud, and East India Express . I’ve backed Karl Des Tourelles , and I also took an early position on Kel Historie a couple of weeks ago, based on him matching two of the most important significant stats. That wraps it up for another year—happy punting, everyone, and I hope you’re having (and continue to have) a great week.

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% 7-8 = 77% Runs: 2-5 = 92% LTO: = Not a LTO winner = 92% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 134-143 Season: Novice/2nd season = 92% Significant Stats: Novice or second season chaser Winner analysis: Three horses match both the significant stat and the key general trends: Waterford Whispers (9/2), The Enabler (20/1), and Prends Garde A Toi (14/1). All three appear to have been campaigned with a Cheltenham handicap in mind throughout the season.

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 87% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 87% OR: 131-152 S.D 135-146 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-7 – 11-8 Qualifying rating: 130-145 Avoid winners of a Pertemps qual = 93% RPR vs OR: M 4+ Significant Stats: Avoid winners of qualifiers Winner analysis: Supremely West (4/1) looks to have been expertly targeted for this race by Dan Skelton and has the strongest winning profile on paper. A lively outsider who could easily outrun his odds, and has a strong stats profile is Red Dirt Road (33/1), who appeals as the next best each-way chance.

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 88%  Bred: IRE, FR= 93% Runs: 2-4 = 90%  Distance: = 93% Grade: 1-2 = 75% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins season: 0-2 = 93% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91% Placed at previous festival: = 83% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE EW Analysis : Banbridge (7/1) has the most appealing EW profile and if the ground is on the good side I can so no reason why he wouldn’t be there at the finish. Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% Placed at previous festival: = 86% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 161+ Season RPR 165+ Best RPR 166+ Course winner Positiv...

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Grade: 1 or 2 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% Distance: 20f+ = 95% Left-handed win: = 95% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ EW Analysis : Ballyburn (12/1) offers the strongest each‑way profile against the historical stats, though he does need to bounce back from an unconvincing run last time out. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 90% Distance: = 80% Distance: 20f+ = 93% LTO: 1-4 = 95% 1-2 = 80% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Left-handed win: 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 164+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 159+ high 164+ Winner analysis: Teahupoo (5/2) matches the high‑end significant RPR stat and has the most statistically strong profile at the top of the market. Last year’s winner Bob Olinger also ...

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 89% Distance: 20/21f = 89% Grade: 1-listed = 89% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ EW Analysis: Excluding the favourite, Jade De Grugy (7/2), Jetara (25/1), Take No Chances (10/1), and Feet Of A Dancer (7/1) all present very strong each-way profiles. I’ve already backed Take No Chances EW ante‑post. Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 93% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Grade: 1-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 93% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 154+ RPR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: OR 146+  RPR 148+  Grade 1-3 Runs 0-3 Positive correlation between position, OR (154+), RPR (155+), runs 0-3, and grade 1-3.  Winner analysis: The favourite, Woodhooh (8/11), meets all three key significant stats, and having backed her early ante‑post, I’...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 88% Days: 21+ = 96% Season: Avoid novices = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-8 Season RPR: 124+ M 135+ BRPR: 135+ M 139+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB EW analysis: Kopeck De Mee (12/1), Jinko Blue (14/1), Puturhandstogether (16/1), Chart Topper (33/1), and Beckett Rock (40/1) have nice profiles. I have previously backed Jinko Blue. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 94% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-10 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 136+ Best RPR: S.D 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: BRPR 4lb above their OR is showing as minor positive correlation (found JDS last year). Winner analysis: Focusing strictly on the significant correlation (BRPR ≥ OR + 4), and accounting for claimers where appropriate, ...