Significant Horse Racing Stats

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-8 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 3-6 = 97% 3-5 = 90% LTO: 1-4 = 93% Distance: = 93% Days: 20+ = 100% Grade: 1-3 = 90% 1-2 = 83% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 151+ HOR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 147+ Season RPR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 157+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : This race looks like it may cut up with horses taking up other engagements so nicking some EW value now may be the way forward. Fusil Raffles (20/1), Latest Exhibition (20/1) and Shan Blue (8/1) have the best EW profiles. Fusil Raffles appreciated the step up in trip back in December and as a former grade 1 winner could be overlooked and may represent EW value and I don't expect to see 20s on the day. It may also be prudent to look at the without fav market in which Shan Blue is 7/2 and Fusil Raffles 10/1. Win Stats: Age: 6-8 = 100% 6-7 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 20+ = 100% 40+ = 90% Distance: = 100% Gr...

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 100% 1-3 = 85% LTO: 1st = 95% OR: S.D = 120+ Mean = 126+ RPR: S.D = 120+ Mean = 129+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR 5-6 IRE/GB Significant Stats: RPR 130+ Winner analysis: Horses that have ran to or above the significant 130 RPR include Kilcruit (15/8), Sir Gerhard (2/1), Letbeclearaboutit (20/1), Eric Bloodaxe (25/1), and Ramillies (25/1). Kilcruit was visually impressive last time however it must be noted that the ground is likely to be very different and he has to prove he will handle the going. I’d personally wait until the day before I’d back him to see how the ground is riding. Sir Gerhard is a horse I’ve backed ante post earlier in the season and he has looked professional in his runs and he also meets all of the general stats and has hit an RPR of 131, I just hope the last-minute change of stable hasn’t disrupted him. Of the others EB is an interesting entry and judged on his first ever run beating la...

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 98% 6-10 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB, GER = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 88% LTO: 1-5 = 87% Distance: = 98% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 87% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 166+ Season RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 168+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-11 IRE/GB EW Analysis : First Flow (14/1) has the best EW profile and this 9-year-old produced his best ever performance last time out winning the grade 1 Clarence House Chase impressively. If the ground came up soft I’d definitely be interesting in backing EW, he does seem very ground dependent however. Next best is reigning champion Politologue (10/1) and if he runs up to his usually standard should pick up some prize money. He is a consistent horse who regularly produces strong RPRs and obviously has course form, I’m sure he will be a popular EW selection for many. Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 1-4 = 95% LTO: 1-5 = 95% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Grade:...

EW Stats: Age: 6-8 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: 1-3 = 90% Days: 20+ = 98% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 148+ HOR: S.D. = 132+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 156+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : This has been a solid race for the stats over the years and fingers crossed that continues. Latest Exhibition (14/1) has the perfect EW profile and having backed ante post I’m hoping connections change their mind and send him over as I’m confident with a clear round he would be at least placed. Sporting John (16/1) also has a perfect EW profile and stayed on strongly over 20f last time and the step up in trip looks sure to suit. Next best and those that meet most of the stats are Eklat De Rire (8/1), The Big Breakaway (12/1) and Pencilfulloflead (25/1).   Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 – 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 80% Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 90% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Days: 20+ = 100% Distance: = 75% G...

EW Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 – 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95% Runs: 2-6 = 95% 2-5 = 92% LTO: 1-3 = 97% 1-2 = 92% Days: 21+ = 92% Distance: 20/21f = 77% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 146+ RPR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ RPR Race: S.D. = 147+ Mean = 152+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Lots of general stats for this race to use to narrow down the field. I originally analysed the race a week or so ago and Bob Olinger was 4/1 – 9/2 and what looked a good EW price as he meets all of the stats, unfortunately Jamie Codds comments on a preview night meant those odds disappeared quickly. Bravemansgame (7/2) also meets all of the EW stats was is just a fraction too short. The only other horse away from the market principles that meets most of the general stats  is Metier (10/1), however his target appears to the Supreme Novices. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 1-5 = 95% Days: 21+ = 90% LTO: 1-2 = 95% Distance: 20/21f = 90% OR:...

EW Stats: Age: 5-9 = 97% 6-9 – 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 93% LTO: 1-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 93% Distance: 20/21f = 90% Grade: 1-listed = 87% OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 149+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Not many horses stand out on the stats away from the front two. Verdana Blue (16/1) has a solid profile and the good ground will definitely suit, she does have a grade 1 win under her belt but has looked like she is regressing. Black Tears (14/1) is next best and has Cheltenham Festival form and a 4lb pull with Dame De Compagnie. Not an appealing EW betting heat for me if I’m honest. Win Stats: Age: 5-10 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 90% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 100% 1st = 80% Grade: 1-2 = 90% Distance: 20/21f = 100% OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+ RPR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 155+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-10 FR 6-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 148+ high 156+ RPR 149+ high sig 156+...

EW Stats: Age: 5-9 = 95% 5-8 = 87% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 1-5 = 98% 2-4 = 87% LTO: 1-3 = 88% Days: 21+ = 97% Previous festival experience: = 88% OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 162+ RPR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ RPR Race: S.D. 161+ Mean 166+ (I like a horse to have a best RPR within 3lbs of this) Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : If Epatante drifted out to 4’s on the day she would be a cracking EW bet, however I doubt that may happen and I can see her only shortening from her current 7/2 so I couldn’t back EW despite having a perfect profile. Goshen (4/1) also has a perfect EW profile and he came right back to form LTO. Visually impressive but I’m not sure the horses he beat ran up to form and the clock doesn’t suggest it was Champion Hurdle form, he may however prove to be an enigma and may have been primed for this day only. Silver Streak (16/1) also has the perfect EW profile and has done nothing but improve and should run his race, whether he’s q...