Significant Horse Racing Stats

Finally managed to review Friday’s racing and again the same pattern emerged, strong in the graded races, very average in the handicaps and next year my main focus will just be on graded races from a betting point of view. 10 sig stats on Friday and 7 upheld, including 2 in the Martin Pipe Handicap which seems to show the classier types at the higher end of the handicap do well. Minella Indo met 4/5 of the sig stats in the Gold Cup with the only one letting him down was LTO. Happy to see the strong sig stats such as days since last run and OR stand up as they do help narrow the field down. Away from the sig stats there has been a lot of talk about the Irish dominance at this years Festival. From my perspective and when briefly looking through the results I feel the Irish horses are simply more experienced in running in competitive graded races whilst the horses based over this side often run in small(er) uncompetitive graded events and get found out. I’d be interested in looking at f

Thursday was an indifferent day from a stats and ante post perspective. There were 9 sig stats and 7 were upheld, the 2 that weren’t was in the Ryanair, and for next year, course winner will be downgraded to course placed form. The other was simply Allaho was 1lb short of a best RPR, fine margins I guess. Highlight of the day was Flooring Porter winning and meeting all 3 sig stats and I had a nice EW bet. Fusil Raffles picked us up some EW money in both markets and at one point looked like he may win. Once again, the handicaps weren’t great, although Mount Ida (suggested 9/1) who was well punted, did get up to win.   No major updates for Friday, except I’ve added Stattler (9/2) EW at enhanced place terms in the AB, the rest of the races are as they were. I’ll do one final review which will more than likely be over the weekend as I plan on having a few drinks whilst watching the races tomorrow. Good luck.    

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 92% Runs: 1-5 = 92% Days: 20-59 = 92% LTO: 1-5 = 92% Season:   Novice or 2 nd = 92% OR: 133-145 S.D 135-145 Weight: 11-1 – 11-10 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 138+ Weight 11-3 Winner analysis: Novice or 2 nd season hurdlers do very well in this and they often show masses of improvement. I tend to prefer the horses towards the top end of the handicap as well (138+) and the two horses that stand out are Gentleman De Mee (9/2) and Fire Attack (11/1). Both EW plays with enhanced places. That’s it, another year of stats complete. I hope people have enjoyed them and used them to their advantage. Time to sit back and enjoy the next 2 days of racing! Enjoy and be lucky.

Win Stats: Age: 7-11 = 90% Runs: 0-4 = 95% Days: 20+ = 90% Distance: 24f+ = 95% OR: Mean 133+ Best OR: Mean 140+ SP: 16s and under Significant Stats: Distance 24f+ Winner analysis: Always happy to discount those that haven’t won over 24f+. Billaway (11/4), Bob and Co (4/1), It Came To Pass (7/1) and Stalker Wallace (9/1) have the best profiles. Billaway does have some ground to make up on last year’s winner ICTP, he has however won his last two races fairly comfortably. Bob and Co is one I’ve backed at much bigger prices ante post and I’m happy with my position, I am very concerned about the going though as his form is all on soft ground. Stalker Wallace was 4 th in this year and has a few lengths to find with Billaway and ICTP.  

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 91% Runs: 2-4 = 91% Days: 40+ = 82% Season: Novice – 3 rd = 91% OR: 134-158 S.D 137-147 Weight: 10-5 – 11-12 S.D 10-7 – 11-6 Significant Stats: Days 40+ Winner analysis: It appears those with a nice break do well in this race and trainers are happy to protect handicap marks. The Irish have a very strong hand and those that meet the sig stat and all of the generals include, Drop The Anchor (10/1), Champagne Gold (10/1), Ciel De Neige (20/1), Ganapathi (11/2), Éclair De Beaufeu (11/1), Saint D’Oroux (20/1), and Wolf Prince (33/1). Already backed Ganapathi, CDN, and EDB ante post so will look at the others in more detail.

Wednesday was a good day for ante post bets and for the significant stats. There were 8 sig stats today and all 8 were upheld, shame I completely ignored PTKO and dismissed her, hindsight however is a wonderful thing! Similar to last year the stats, especially the sig stats for the graded races really hold up well, whilst the handicaps seem to struggle, perhaps the changing nature of the Festival and how horses are prepared are factors. I must look into this once the dust has settled. Onto Thursday and there are no real updates as nothing to add in the Marsh Novices’ Chase or Pertemps. In the Ryanair Chase all horses analysed were declared despite a last-minute drift on Allaho suggesting otherwise, whilst in the Stayers all who we expected to be declared are and the two later handicaps are as they were.  As ever, good luck with all your bets.  

Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 91% Bred: IRE, USA, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 100% LTO: = Not a winner = 91% Days: 20+ = 100% OR: 130-149 S.D 136-142 Weight: 11-0 – 11-12 Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: A completely different race this year in my eyes without the amateurs riding and a race I will be throwing a few small EW darts at. The horses that meet the winner stats are Mount Ida (9/1), Plan Of Attack (9/1), Storm Control (16/1), Hold The Note (13/2), Milanford (20/1), Crievehill (33/1), Go Another One (33/1) and Cloudy Glen (33/1). Having looked through them and providing the ground stays good/soft I’ll be backing POA who finished 4 th last year, Mount Ida and Go Another One who I think is overpriced especially with his excellent jockey taking off a valuable 3lbs.  

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-7 = 97% Distance: = 85% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 127-156 S.D 133-148 Weight: S.D 10-4 – 11-3 HOR: 121+ EW Analysis : Happy Diva (28/1), Smarty Wild (33/1), The Unit (50/1), Champagne Court (40/1), Kiltealy Briggs (33/1), and Fils Doudairies (8/1) meet all of the EW stats.   Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 100% 6-9 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-5 = 91% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 91% OR: 130-149 S.D 135-146 Weight: 10-1 – 11-4 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-10 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: Kiltealy Briggs and Smarty Wild have the best profiles, however looking through the form neither appeal to me. Next best are Fils Doudairies and Farclas (13/2) and I’ll be happy to back both EW.

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97% Runs: 2-7 = 97% 2-6 = 91% Qualifying position: 1-4 = 76% OR: 133-152 S.D 135-145 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-6 – 11-7 Qualifying rating: S.D 128-143 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Not a great race for stats and trends so I’ll be keeping stakes small and definitely taking advantage of any extra place markets. The Bosses Oscar (6/1) meets the above with his useful claimer taking 7lbs off. Champagne Platinum’s (13/2) run last time was eye catching and he also meets the stats, along with Southfield Harvest (14/1), Storm Arising (20/1), and Spiritofthegames (20/1)           Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-7 = 100% OR: 133-152 S.D 136-147 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-6 – 11-10 Qualifying rating: S.D 132 - 145 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-10 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Loads of horses meet the winner stats including al

A superb day of racing with the highlight for me being Honeysuckle and Rachael Blackmore winning the Champion Hurdle and becoming the first female jockey to do so. Shishkin looked awesome and already looks the one to beat in next years Champion Chase, whilst Appreciate It, who looks every inch a chaser for next year and was superb. In terms of the significant stats, 14/17 were upheld which is good to see as it shows they help when narrowing down the fields and this is why they can be useful. The Mares race had two significant stats which didn’t uphold which I’m not too disappointed about since it is the 1 st year I’ve used them and the data may be skewed because of Quevega! I’m just glad in the review I suggested Black Tears as an EW option. The Boodles was a frustrating race with Saint Sam finishing second, well done to anyone who backed the winner, it was never on my radar. The Supreme Novices, Ultima Handicap, Arkle and NH Chase stats held up well, especially the later which high

Small fields again for some of the races. Nothing to update in the Ballymore and the horses at the top of the market were all declared. In the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, I’ve added Eklat De Rire (11/4) in the W/O Monkfish market because with a few absentees he now comes out best on the general’s W/O Monkfish. In the Champion Chase, Altior wasn’t declared and this means I will be looking at adding one of First Flow (13/2), Politologue (9/2) or Nube Negra (3/1) in the W/O CPS market. Which I’ll add will depend on the ground, if soft either FF or Politologue or both, if genuine good ground NN. No stats for the Cross Country Chase, Easyland is the obvious winner but I’ll probably leave alone. No surprises in the Bumper and no change. As always, good luck with whoever you decide to back.

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 93% Runs: 2-5 = 93% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% OR: 136 - 152 S.D 139 – 149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-10 – 11-6 Hurdles OR: Mean 134+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR/GB 7-11 IRE EW Analysis : Cleansed the data for this race and played about with a few variables as I wasn’t happy with it over the last couple of years. The stats for this race also need to be treated with caution due to the race switching courses. Quite a few horses meet the EW stats and need a further look and they are Chosen Mate (14/1) who won this last year and looks to have been laid out for a repeat and the stable have opted to put a claimer on board taking 7lb off. Us And Them (16/1) who ran a funny race in this last year finishing a staying on 3 rd. Zanza (15/2), Embittered (6/1), Entoucas (8/1) and Glen Forsa (22/1) are the other horses who hit all of the EW stats.   Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 90% 7-9 = 80% Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-5 = 90%

EW Stats: Age: 5-10 = 97% 5-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 97% Runs: 1-6 = 97% 1-4 = 85% Days: 20+ = 94% OR: 135 - 155 S.D 138 – 150 Weight: 10-5 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 140 – 154 Best RPR: S.D 140 - 157 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-10 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Three horses catch the eye and have excellent EW profiles, Grand Roi (7/1), Botox Has (16/1) and Monte Cristo (14/1).   Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 5-8 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: Not a G1 winner = 100% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-6 – 11-10 S.D 10-10 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 140-151 Best RPR: 138-155 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Nicky Henderson has won the last two renewals (3 winners last 7 years) and looks to have another live chance in Monte Cristo. He meets all of the general stats and has been kept fresh for a tilt at this and I’ve backed EW. Botox Has

Nothing to update in the Supreme Hurdle. Hopefully anyone who fancied the EW on Allmankind in the Arkle took a price the other day and the three places as with a clear round you'd expect him to finish in the frame. On a side note, I anticipate a few of the graded races such as the Marsh Novices to cut up as well so if you do fancy an EW poke it would be worth backing now. Main protagonists stood their ground in the Champion Hurdle so nothing to add there. In the Mares race Verdana Blue wasn't declared and having looked through the race again I'm happy to have a little EW bet on Black Tears at 14s. In the NH Chase the fav Royal Pagaille wasn't declared, hopefully a few of you backed Next Destination and Escaria Ten and nabbed some value.   Good luck and I’ll post Wednesdays handicaps tomorrow.  

Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 100% 3-5 = 88% LTO: 1-6 = 88% Days: 0-40 = 88% OR: 115-139 S.D 123-135 Weight: S.D = 10-9 – 11-7 Best RPR:   118-143 Significant Stats: Bred IRE, FR Best RPR 128+ Runs 2-4 Winner analysis: Four horses meet the 3 significant stats, Nassalam (18/1), Youmdor (20/1), Saint Sam (6/1) and Busselton (10/1). Not keen on Nassalam and I’m happy to dismiss him as I just don’t think he is up to carrying top weight against a few of these. The other three I will be looking at in more detail and studying trainer form, form of the horse and suitability of the ground. Again a few firms are offering enhanced place terms and I prefer losing a couple of points on the price if it means gaining the extra place.

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 90% Distance: 24f+ = 76% Days: 20+ = 88% OR: 129-155 S.D 137-149 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-6 RPR Race 142-163 (within 5lb of 142) Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR/GB 7-9 IRE EW Analysis : 16 runners declared and Sky Bet are going 7 places so if you do fancy n EW bet have a look at their prices. Last years Kim Muir winner Milan Native (9/1) ticks plenty of boxes and whilst his last three aren’t inspiring he my just have been prepared with Cheltenham in mind. One For The Team (6/1) also has a cracking EW profile and this novice has a few bits of strong form which makes him a contender.   Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 100% 7-9 – 86% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 86% Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: 1-6 = 100% 1-5 = 93% Distance: 24f+ = 86% OR: 129-155 S.D 136-149 Weight: S.D = 10-4 – 11-7 RPR Race:   142+ (within 5lbs) Significant Stats: LTO 1-5 Winner analysis: Happygolucky (7/2) has the best profile and K

Tough couple of days with some fancied runners either ruled out through injury or connections deciding not to run. A few ante post bets binned as a result! Onwards and upwards. I will publish the stats for the handicaps once the 48-hour decs are out and all horses are jocked up. I've made the mistake of ruling out a horse and then a claimer put up. 

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE, FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 98%   LTO: 1-6 = 88% Days: 21+ = 97% Festival experience: = 78% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 172+ RPR Race: S.D = 168+ Mean = 174+ (within 5lbs) Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-9 FR 7-10 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Usually a strong trend race and it pays to focus on particular trends. A Plus Tard (6/1), Kemboy (14/1), Frodon (14/1), and Lostintranslation (33/1) have the best EW profiles.   Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% 7-9 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95% Runs: 1-4 = 95% LTO: 1-2 = 90% 1 st = 80% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 95% 1 = 80% Festival Experience: = 90% OR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 174+ RPR Race: S.D = 172+ Mean = 178+ Significant Stats: OR 165+ Grade 1-2 High grade 1 RPR Race 172+ (within 5lbs so 167 best RPR min) Days 20+ prefer 40+ LTO 1-2 high 1st Correlation between position, OR (165), Grade 1 - 2, and Best

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 94% 3-5 = 85% LTO: 1-3 = 90% Days: 20+ = 98% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 145+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR/GB 5-8 IRE EW Analysis : The Irish horses OR’s will all need checking after the 5-day decs. A host of horses have good EW profiles including the fav Stattler (5/1), however at the prices I like Torygraph (8/1), Barbados Bucks (13/2) and Farouk D’alene (16/1). Not sure the latter will turn up as reports suggested he had a minor setback and was struggling to make it.   Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-7 – 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 3-4 = 87% LTO: 1-3 = 94% OR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 145+ RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5 FR/GB 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: No significant stats Winner analysis: Torygraph and Stattler have the best profiles and I’ve backed Torygraph EW. Next best are Barbados Bucks and Threeunderthrufive however I will hold back off

EW Stats: Runs: 1-5 = 92% LTO: 1-4 = 97% 1-2 = 85% Distance: = 98% Days: 0-60 = 92% Flat bred: = 83% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 133+ Mean = 139+ RPR Race: S.D. = 141+ Mean = 147+ Flat rating: Mean 83+ EW Analysis : Please note that all of the OR’s will need checking once 5-day decs are published for this race.  Adagio (10/1) has the best profile of all the horses above 4/1 and he does boast some Cheltenham form and a very solid RPR last time out. Win Stats: Runs: 1-6 = 95% LTO: 1-4 = 100% 1-2 = 90% Days: 0-60 = 100% Distance: = 95% Flat bred: = 80% OR: S.D = 135+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 134+ Mean = 140+ RPR Race: S.D = 145+ Mean 151+ Flat rating: S.D = 74+ Mean = 84+ Significant Stats: RPR min 140+ Winner analysis: Five horses above the 140 RPR, Zanahiyr (9/4), Tritonic (9/4), Quilixos (11/2), Adagio and Nassalam (33/1). Best on generals is Tritonic who looked very impressive last time and I do prefer flat raced

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB, = 97% Runs: 2-7 = 95% OR: Mean = 138+ Season RPR: S.D = 139+ Mean = 146+ Starting price: 20s or under Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-8 FR 6-10 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Not a lot to go on at all and most horses meet the EW stats. This is a race were I will be cleansing the data soon with the new distance and qualifying rules. Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 100% 7-10 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 90% Runs: 2-7 = 100% Days: 21+ = 90% Starting price: 14s or under OR: Mean = 138+ Season RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 148+ Significant Stats: Days 20+ high 40+ Winner analysis: I have analysed other variables but nothing comes up that is worth paying attention to. Royal Pagaille (11/8) meets the stats but I wouldn’t back at that price, especially as he is unproven on the ground. Galvin (3/1) is an ante post selection and also meets the stats however 3/1 is on the short side now. Next Destination (7/1) and Escaria Ten (7/1) are the two who m

EW Stats: Age: 5-11 = 100% 6-9 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Distance: = 80% Days: 21+ = 97% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Grade: 1 or 2 = 90% OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-11 IRE/GB EW Analysis : The top two in the market have the best profiles and some people will be happy to back EW at 3/1. Away from them Flooring Porter (12/1) and Roksana are next best, the latter being a doubtful runner however. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 95% Distance: = 80% LTO: 1-4 = 95% 1-2 = 85% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 164+ Season RPR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+ Significant Stats: OR 158+ High 164+ Season RPR 158+ High 164 + Runs 2-5 high 2-4 Correlation between position, OR (164), SRPR (164), and runs (2-4) Winner analysis: In the last 20 years this race has been won by a previous grade 1 or 2 winner so that is a great place to s

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 100% 7-10 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR= 93% Runs: 2-6 = 98% Distance: = 93% Days: 21+ = 93% OR: S.D = 156+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 8-10 IRE EW Analysis : Quite a lot of horses are close together on the stats and on form so it’s a tough race to call. Min (6/1) and Imperial Aura (13/2) have the best profiles, closely followed by Allaho (5/1). Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 100% 7-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 93% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% OR: S.D = 158+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 164+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 160+ High 165+ Season RPR 164+ High 169 + Best RPR 167+ Course winner Correlation between position, OR (165), SRPR (169), BRPR (170), and course winner Winner analysis: Previous course winners have done well in this rac