Significant Horse Racing Stats

What a fantastic week—great to see such competitive fields, especially in the graded races. Tuesday Review: The week got off to a flying start in the Supreme Novices’, with Old Park Star and Sober Glory (14/1 at the time) finishing first and second, and all three key stats holding up. In the Arkle, Kargese (6/1) was highlighted as a strong each-way option and also featured prominently in the winner analysis, meeting three of the four key stats—the only missing one being chase wins that season. The Fred Winter proved productive too, with the analysis pointing towards placed horses Winston Junior, Kilycot (40/1 SP), and Pourquoi Pas Papa (28/1 SP). There was no luck in the Ultima, although the winner did meet the significant stat of a 5lb+ RPR vs OR, which strengthens confidence in that stat. In the Champion Hurdle, the two mares who finished first and second had the strongest profiles, and having backed Lossiemouth ante-post, that was a pleasing result. Finally, in the Plate, Mad...

EW Stats: Bred: IRE/FR/GB = 97% Season hurdle runs: 1-4 = 90% Career hurdle runs: 1-6 = 95% 2-5 = 79% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Days: 21+ = 95% 21-60 =82% OR: S.D = Min = 128+ S.D = 139+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 132+ Mean = 139+ If Flat bred OR rating: S.D = 73+ M 85+ EW Analysis : The two fillies, Selma De Vary (7/2) and Highland Crystal (8/1) have the best EW profiles.  Win Stats: Bred: IRE/FR = 92% Career hurdle runs: 1-4 = 85% Season hurdle runs: 1-3 = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 100% Days: 0-60 = 92% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 75% OR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 146+ Season RPR: S.D = 133+ Mean = 140+ Flat rating: S.D 80+ Significant Stats: Career hurdle runs 1-4. Winner analysis: Again, the two fillies have the strongest profiles and I've backed both EW.  

Win Stats: Age: 7-8 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 100% Season Runs: 3 = 100% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1st = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Grade LTO: 2-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 80% Festival Experience: 80% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 153+ SRPR: S.D = 151+ Mean = 155+ Significant Stats: OR 150+  SRPR 152+  Winner analysis: Only 5 years of data so a very small sample to work with. Based on the sig stats, Dinoblue (6/4) and Spindleberry (9/2) are the only two horses to meet them.

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 5-7 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 98% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Days: 20+ = 97% Distance: 20f-24f = 85% OR: S.D = 136+ Mean = 143+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Kazansky (16/1), Spinningayarn (12/1), and Thedeviluno (4/1) all have strong profiles and warrant closer consideration. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 95% 6-7 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% 3-4 = 90% LTO: 1-4 = 95% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: 19f-24f = 85% OR: S.D = 138+ Mean = 144+ RPR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 146+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Course winner Age 6-7 Days 21+ High 40+ Winner analysis: The 40+ days angle is a new significant stat I’ll be using to help narrow the field, although I won’t dismiss a horse that falls just short of it if their overall profile is strong. Kripticjim (20/1) is the only runner to meet all three key criteria. His BRPR is a little below wh...

EW Stats: Age: 7-9 = 97% Bred: IRE, FR = 87% Runs: 1-4 = 100%    Distance: 24f+ = 97% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 90% Festival Experience: = 97% OR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 168+ Best RPR: S.D = 166+ Mean = 172+ Season RPR: S.D. = 164+ Mean = 171 EW Analysis : The Jukebox Man (4/1) and Gaelic Warrior (4/1) have the best profiles. I have backed both EW a few weeks ago. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 80% Runs: 1-4 = 100% LTO: 1-4 = 100% Days: 40+ = 90% Grade: 1 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 80% Festival Experience: = 100% OR: S.D = 163+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 168+ Mean = 175+ Season RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean 174+ Significant Stats: Grade 1 OR 166+ BRPR 168+ Winner analysis: Plenty of horses tick the sig‑stat boxes, but once you layer in the general stats, you’re really down to the two already mentioned plus Grey Dawning (12/1). I’m happy with the pair I’ve gone for. The only niggle is last year’s winner—if he comes ...

Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% Runs: 0-4 = 92% Season: 1-3 = 92% Novice/2 nd  = 77% LTO: 1-4 = 85% OR: 129-158 S.D 132-146 Weight: S.D 10-6 – 11-5 Significant Stats: OR 144 and under Correlation with Position & LTO (1-4) Winner analysis: Any runner from the Mullins or Skelton yards warrants serious consideration. Murcia (6/1), Sizandahalf (16/1), Jubilee Alpha (20/1), Joyeuse (20/1), and Tellherthename (16/1) all meet the significant stats as well as the broader general trends.

Win Stats: Age: 8-11 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Hunter Chase Runs: 1-4 = 100% Days: 20-59 = 93% OR: Mean 134+ SP: Mean 18s or under Significant Stats: Age 8+ High 9+ Winner analysis: Barton Snow (16/1), Its On The Line (11/2), Panda Boy (7/1), Stattler (14/1), and Wiilitgoahead (16/1) all fit both the significant stats and the overall race profile. I’ve backed Panda Boy each-way at ante‑post and will look to add a couple more closer to the day.

Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR = 93% Runs: 2-5 = 86% Days: 20+ = 100% LTO: 1-4 = 93% Season:  Novice or 2nd = 93% OR: 135-145 S.D 137-145 Weight: S.D 11-3 – 11-9 Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR 6-7 IRE Significant Stats: OR 137+ High 140+ Weight 11-3+ LTO 1-4 Winner analysis: Eight horses make the significant stat shortlist: It’s Bilbo (20/1), Nurse Susan (20/1), Sa Fureur (33/1), Farfromnowhere (40/1), Karl Des Tourelles (40/1), Fiercely Proud (20/1), East India Express (12/1), and De Capo Glory (50/1). When the broader trends are applied, the field narrows to Karl Des Tourelles, Fiercely Proud, and East India Express . I’ve backed Karl Des Tourelles , and I also took an early position on Kel Historie a couple of weeks ago, based on him matching two of the most important significant stats. That wraps it up for another year—happy punting, everyone, and I hope you’re having (and continue to have) a great week.

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% 7-8 = 77% Runs: 2-5 = 92% LTO: = Not a LTO winner = 92% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 134-143 Season: Novice/2nd season = 92% Significant Stats: Novice or second season chaser Winner analysis: Three horses match both the significant stat and the key general trends: Waterford Whispers (9/2), The Enabler (20/1), and Prends Garde A Toi (14/1). All three appear to have been campaigned with a Cheltenham handicap in mind throughout the season.

Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 87% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-6 = 87% OR: 131-152 S.D 135-146 Weight: 10-1 – 11-12 S.D 10-7 – 11-8 Qualifying rating: 130-145 Avoid winners of a Pertemps qual = 93% RPR vs OR: M 4+ Significant Stats: Avoid winners of qualifiers Winner analysis: Supremely West (4/1) looks to have been expertly targeted for this race by Dan Skelton and has the strongest winning profile on paper. A lively outsider who could easily outrun his odds, and has a strong stats profile is Red Dirt Road (33/1), who appeals as the next best each-way chance.

EW Stats: Age: 7-10 = 88%  Bred: IRE, FR= 93% Runs: 2-4 = 90%  Distance: = 93% Grade: 1-2 = 75% Days: 21+ = 95% Chase wins season: 0-2 = 93% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 91% Placed at previous festival: = 83% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 163+ Season RPR: S.D = 162+ Mean = 167+ Best RPR: S.D = 163+ Mean 169+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-10 FR 7-10 IRE EW Analysis : Banbridge (7/1) has the most appealing EW profile and if the ground is on the good side I can so no reason why he wouldn’t be there at the finish. Win Stats: Age: 7-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-4 = 100% Course winner: = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 80% Chase wins season: 0-3 = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% Placed at previous festival: = 86% OR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 170+ Best RPR: S.D = 167+ Mean = 172+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 7-10 FR 8-10 IRE Significant Stats: OR 161+ Season RPR 165+ Best RPR 166+ Course winner Positiv...

EW Stats: Age: 6-10 = 92% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% Runs: 2-5 = 92% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 85% LTO: 1-4 = 92% Grade: 1 or 2 = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% Distance: 20f+ = 95% Left-handed win: = 95% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 161+ EW Analysis : Ballyburn (12/1) offers the strongest each‑way profile against the historical stats, though he does need to bounce back from an unconvincing run last time out. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% 40+ = 90% Distance: = 80% Distance: 20f+ = 93% LTO: 1-4 = 95% 1-2 = 80% Grade: 1 or 2 = 100% Left-handed win: 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 93% OR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 162+ Season RPR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 164+ Significant Stats: Season RPR 159+ high 164+ Winner analysis: Teahupoo (5/2) matches the high‑end significant RPR stat and has the most statistically strong profile at the top of the market. Last year’s winner Bob Olinger also ...

EW Stats: Age: 6-9 – 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-5 = 100% LTO: 1-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 89% Distance: 20/21f = 89% Grade: 1-listed = 89% OR: S.D = 137+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 140+ Mean = 149+ EW Analysis: Excluding the favourite, Jade De Grugy (7/2), Jetara (25/1), Take No Chances (10/1), and Feet Of A Dancer (7/1) all present very strong each-way profiles. I’ve already backed Take No Chances EW ante‑post. Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 0-3 = 87% Days: 20+ = 93% LTO: 1-2 = 87% Grade: 1-listed = 100% Distance: 20/21f = 93% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 154+ RPR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 155+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-9 FR 6-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: OR 146+  RPR 148+  Grade 1-3 Runs 0-3 Positive correlation between position, OR (154+), RPR (155+), runs 0-3, and grade 1-3.  Winner analysis: The favourite, Woodhooh (8/11), meets all three key significant stats, and having backed her early ante‑post, I’...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 98% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-5 = 88% Days: 21+ = 96% Season: Avoid novices = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-12 S.D 10-9 – 11-8 Season RPR: 124+ M 135+ BRPR: 135+ M 139+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB EW analysis: Kopeck De Mee (12/1), Jinko Blue (14/1), Puturhandstogether (16/1), Chart Topper (33/1), and Beckett Rock (40/1) have nice profiles. I have previously backed Jinko Blue. Win Stats: Age: 5-8 – 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE/FR = 88% Runs: 1-4 = 81% Days: 21+ = 100% Season: Avoid novices = 94% OR: 135-153 S.D 139-150 Weight: 10-2 – 11-10 S.D 10-10 – 11-8 Season RPR: S.D 136+ Best RPR: S.D 143+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: BRPR 4lb above their OR is showing as minor positive correlation (found JDS last year). Winner analysis: Focusing strictly on the significant correlation (BRPR ≥ OR + 4), and accounting for claimers where appropriate, ...

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 95%  Runs: 2-5 = 90%  Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 98% Bred: IR, FR, GB = 98% OR: 134-155 S.D 138-149 Weight: 10-2 – 11-11 S.D 10-9 – 11-6 X Tab: 6 year olds/FR EW analysis: Beyond ridiculous how many horses meet the EW stats. Moving on. Win Stats: Age: 6-9 = 86% Bred: IRE, FR = 86%  Runs: 2-5 = 93% LTO: Avoid LTO winners = 86% Days: 21+ = 100% Distance: = 93% OR: 135-152 S.D 137-148 Weight: 10-2 – 11-8 S.D 10-8 – 11-6 Cross Tab: Age/Bred FR 6-9 Other 7-11 Significant Stats: Avoid LTO winners. Winner analysis: A working shortlist for me includes Be Aware (7/1), Addragoole (16/1), Jazzy Matty (10/1), Western Diego (25/1), The Other Mozzie (40/1), and Special Cadeau (25/1). At first glance, I’m particularly drawn to Addragoole, with Cromwell more than capable of producing one ready for this type of race. I also like Jazzy Matty each‑way, especially after the recent wind operation. I’ve already backed ...

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 100% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Season Runs: 1-4 = 100% Career Hurdle Runs: 2+ = 90% Days: 20+ = 100% Distance: 18f-21f = 80% LTO: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D = 131+ Mean = 138+ Best RPR: S.D = 127+ Mean = 136+ Significant Stats: Best RPR 128 OR 129 Distance 18f+ Positive correlation between position and OR (135), BRPR (134, and distance (18f+). Winner analysis: The favourite, Bambino Fever (4/5), hits all three significant stats. Oldschool Outlaw (4/1) also meets the key stats and produced an impressive RPR last time out; she fits the correlation profile as well. Echoing Silence (12/1) matches the key stats too, and I’ve backed her each-way NRNB. Finally, Place De La Nation (33/1) also ticks three of the criteria. If declared, I’ll add Oldschool Outlaw each-way on the day.

Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, = 93% Runs: 1-5 = 93% Distance: = 100% Days: 20+ = 93% Season: Novice/2 nd  = 80% OR: 136-149 S.D 138-145 Weight: 10-7 – 11-2 Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-10 Other Significant Stats: Distance Winner analysis: This isn’t a strong stats race, and no horse has a perfect profile. The ones that score best on the general stats and also hit the key stat are O’Moore Park (20/1), Madara (4/1), and Booster Bob (20/1).

EW Stats: Age: 7-9 = 86% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 2-5 = 94% Distance: 24f+ = 89% Days: 20+ = 92% OR: 127-155 S.D 139-151 Weight: S.D 10-8 – 11-9 Best RPR vs OR: S.D  2+ Mean 6+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 7-9 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Konfusion (16/1), Search For Glory (40/1), Imperial Saint (16/1), Hyland (16/1), Myretown (10/1), and The Short Go (20/1) have strong EW profiles. Win Stats: Age: 7-9 = 83% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE = 92% Runs: 2-5 = 100% LTO: 1-6 = 92% Distance: 24f+ = 100% OR: 127-155 S.D 137-151 Weight: S.D = 10-7 – 11-9 RPR Race:  145+ BRPR vs OR: S.D 5+ Mean 8+  Significant Stats: BRPR vs OR. 5+ high 8+ Winner analysis: I have introduced a new stat that I was playing around with, and what it is, is a horses best RPR vs current OR. Ideally you are looking for horses who has at least a BRPR 5lb higher than current OR, or to narrow the field down further, 8lb above current OR. A number of hors...

EW Stats: Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Season Runs: 2-4 = 82% 3-4 = 74% Days: 21+ = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 85% LTO: 1-6 = 90% OR: 122-139 S.D 126-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best RPR:  S.D. 117+ Mean 125 EW Analysis:  The following horses have good EW profiles, Winston Junior (13/2), Klycot (28/1), Pourquoi Pas Papa (28/1), Barbizon (25/1), Macktoad (50/1), and The Mighty Celt (28/1). Win Stats: Bred: IRE, FR, GER = 100% Distance: = 85% Runs: 1-5 = 100% 3-4 = 78%  Days: 21-60 = 85% Hurdle wins: 1-2 = 85% OR: 122-139 S.D 125-136 Weight: S.D = 10-10 – 11-7 Best SRPR:  S.D. 118+ Mean 126 Significant Stats: No sig stats Winner analysis: The horses in the EW analysis, except Macktoad meet the win stats. I have backed Winston Junior and Barbizon EW so far.

Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 100% Bred: IRE, GB, FR = 100% Career Bumper Runs: 1-3 = 92% 2-3 = 79% Season Runs: 1-3 = 92% 1-2 = 79% Days: 21+ = 93% LTO: 1st = 100% OR: S.D = 123+ Mean = 129+ RPR: S.D = 124+ Mean = 131+ Significant Stats: OR 124+ RPR 123+ Age 5-6 CBR 2-3 Positive correlation between Pos, OR (130), RPR (128) and CBR (2-3). Winner analysis: Bambino Fever was highlighted at 7/1 last year and duly obliged. The following horses meet the four significant statistics: Keep Him Company (9/1), Bass Hunter (12/1), Broadway Ted (16/1), It’s Only A Game (20/1), Charismatic Kid (25/1), With Nolimit (25/1), and Moonverinn (50/1). Of these, Broadway Ted is the only runner to meet the key correlation, and at 16/1 he appears potentially overpriced. Gordon Elliott seems to hold a strong hand in the race with multiple contenders fitting the statistical profile. The favourite, Love Sign Danou (4/1), has the career bumper runs statistic to overcome, although he d...

EW Stats: Age: 6-11 = 98% 7-10 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 1-4 = 93% Days: 21+ = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 88% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 98% OR: S.D = 157+ Mean = 165+ Season RPR: S.D = 159+ Mean = 167+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-9 FR 7-11 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Il Et Temps (5/1) has a perfect EW profile and having backed EW ante post at the start of the season I’m hoping he is bang there. The only minor concern would be his effectiveness around Cheltenham. Win Stats: Age: 6-10 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-3 = 90% LTO: 1-3 = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% 21-60 = 85% Distance: = 100% Grade: 1-2 = 100% Chase wins season: 1+ = 90% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 100% OR: S.D = 161+ Mean = 169+ Season RPR: S.D = 165+ Mean = 171+ Significant Stats: OR 161+  Grade 1 Season RPR 163+ Grade LTO 1 Correlation between position, OR (168), Grade 1 winner, SRPR (171), grade LTO (1) Winner analysis: Il Et Temps meets all four of the significant statistics as well as the key ...

EW Stats: Age: 6-8 = 93% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90% Runs: 2-5 = 98% LTO: 1-3 = 93% Grade: 1-3 = 85% Days: 20+ = 100% Chase wins: 1-2 = 83% OR: S.D = 143+ Mean = 150+ HOR: S.D. = 134+ Mean = 144+ Season RPR: S.D = 150+ Mean = 156+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB EW Analysis : Final Demand (4/1) holds the strongest each-way statistical profile and, given the stable, it would be no surprise if he were primed perfectly for this race. Kaid D’Authie (7/1) and The Big Westerner (6/1) possess the next-best statistical profiles and also warrant serious consideration.   Win Stats: Age: 5-8 = 100% 7-8 = 90% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% IRE, FR = 90% IRE = 75% Runs: 2-5 = 100% 3-5 = 85% LTO: 1-2 = 90% Grade: 1-3 = 92% Days: 20+ = 100% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 86% Chase wins: 1-4 = 93% OR: S.D = 147+ Mean = 153+ Season RPR: S.D = 154+ Mean = 159+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 7-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: SRPR 154+ High 160+ Winner analys...

EW Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 88% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 95% Runs: 2-4 = 93%  LTO: 1-2 = 95% Days: 21+ = 98% Hurdle wins: 1-4 = 100% Left-handed win: = 91% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 81% OR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ RPR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 149+ RPR Race: S.D. = 147+ Mean = 153+ EW Analysis : At the head of the market, Talk The Talk (3/1), NDTE (7/2), and Skylight Hustle (11/2) show the strongest each-way statistical profiles based on the key historical trends. Win Stats: Age: 5-7 = 100% 5-6 = 95% Bred: IRE, FR = 90% Distance: = 80% Runs: 2-4 = 85% Days: 21+ = 100% LTO: 1-2 = 95% 1st = 85% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 93% Left-handed win: = 93% Grade LTO: 1-2 = 85% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 151+ RPR Race: S.D. 151+ Mean 157+ X Tab Bred/Age: IR/FR 5-6 GB 6-7 Significant Stats: RPR 147+  Winner analysis: Season RPR continues to be the strongest stat for this race, and only Talk The Talk and NDTE meet it. If Talk T...

Win Stats: Age: 5-9 = 100% 6-8 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Runs: 1-4 = 95% 2-4 = 90% Days: 21+ = 100% LTO: 1st = 85% Previous festival experience: = 95% Grade: 1-2 = 85% Grade: Won a graded race that season =93% Grade run LTO: 1 - listed = 93% Season wins: 1-3 = 100% OR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-7 FR 5-9 IRE/GB Significant Stats: Season wins 2-3 LTO 1st OR 161+ Positive correlation between position, OR (166) RPR (166+), LTO (1st), season wins (2-3). Winner analysis: The two mares Lossiemouth (5/2) and Brighterdaysahead (4/1) both match two of the key trends. Lossiemouth misses the last-time-out trend, while Brighterdaysahead falls short on seasonal wins, which has been a common feature among recent winners. The New Lion (5/2) meets just one of the main trends, and his current Official Rating and best Racing Post Rating sit sl...

EW Stats: Age: 5-8 = 97% 6-7 = 85% Bred: IRE, FR = 91% Distance: = 100% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 82% Chase wins: 1-3 = 91% Won left-handed: = 85% Grade: 1-2 = 76% OR: S.D = 149+ Mean = 155+ RPR: S.D = 152+ Mean = 159+ Hurdles OR: S.D. 138+ Mean 148+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-8 FR 6-8 Other EW Analysis : For those looking away from the top two in the betting, Kargese (6s), and Romeo Coolio (7s) have strong EW profiles.  Win Stats: Age: 6-7 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100%, IRE, FR = 82%  Runs: 2-5 = 100% 2-3 = 82% Days: 21 - 60 = 91% Chase wins: 1-4 = 100% Left-handed win: 91% LTO: 1st = 82% Grade: 1-2 = 91% 1 = 82% OR: S.D = 153+ Mean = 160+ RPR: S.D = 160+ Mean = 166+ Hurdles OR: S.D = 148+ Mean = 154+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 6-7 FR 6-8 IRE/GB Significant Stats: RPR 157+ HOR 146+ OR 153+ Chase wins 2+ Positive correlation between position, OR (158+), RPR (163+), HOR (153+), LTO (1st) & chase wins (2+) Winner analys...

EW Stats: Age: 5-6 = 91% Bred: IRE, FR = 85% Runs: 2-4 = 92% Hurdle wins: 1-3 = 91% Won on a left-handed track: = 80% LTO: 1-2 = 89% 1st = 76% Grade: 1 - listed = 78% Days: 20+ = 93% OR: S.D = 142+ Mean = 148+ Best RPR: S.D = 141+ Mean = 147+ S.P: Mean 9s and under EW Analysis : Talk The Talk (6/1) possesses a very strong each-way statistical profile. If connections opt for this race rather than the Turners, he should be very competitive. Another with a favourable each-way profile is Sober Glory (14/1), who produced an impressive RPR on his latest start, albeit achieved in heavy ground conditions. Win Stats: Age: 5-6 = 94% Bred: IRE, FR, GB = 100% Days: 20+ = 89% Runs: 2-4 = 94% LTO: 1-2 = 94% 1st = 83% Grade: 1-listed = 94% 1-2 = 82% Hurdle wins: 2-3 = 89% Won left-handed: = 83% OR: S.D = 144+ Mean = 149+ RPR: S.D = 145+ Mean = 150+ Crosstab Age/Bred: 5-6 FR/GB 6-7 IRE SP Mean: = 7's and under Significant St...

Welcome to this year’s Cheltenham Festival Significant Horse Racing Stats page. For new readers and followers, the aim of this blog is to provide key statistics and trends for most of the races. More importantly, it highlights the most significant patterns that may help narrow large fields down to a smaller group of realistic contenders. Some races include up to 20 years of historical data, while others—particularly handicaps—are based on at least the last 10 years of results. This page is not intended as a tipping service. Instead, it provides information and insights that readers can interpret and use however they wish. I will, however, highlight any horses that I plan to back or have already backed. If you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback, feel free to message me on Twitter/X @SigStatsHorses. Likes, shares, and retweets are always appreciated. Key Sig stat – In principle, a statistically significant result (usually a difference) is one that is unlikely to...